Situation Report: At least 3 rockets target US personnel in Baghdad’s Green Zone

On January 13, at least two rockets struck Iraq’s fortified Green Zone in an attack the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad attributed to“terrorist groups.” A third rocket directed at the site of the embassy hit a nearby school, wounding 2 Iraqi civilians. The embassy elaboratedthat the

compound was attacked by terrorist groups attempting to undermine Iraq’s security, sovereignty and international relations. We (the embassy) have long said that these sorts of reprehensible attacks are an assault not just on diplomatic facilities, but on the sovereignty of Iraq itself.

The rockets activated the embassy’s C-RAM (Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar) defensive system, constructed to detect and destroy incoming projectiles. An Iraqi military statement indicated the rockets were launched from the Dora neighborhood in south Baghdad. Although no group has claimed responsibility, Iranian-aligned militias have perpetuated parallel attacks since the 2020 U.S. targeted killing of Iranian commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

Days after Iran commemorated the death of Soleimani earlier this year, U.S. personnel in Baghdad and the western Anbar province were hitby coordinated Katyusha rockets. Simultaneously, eight rounds of indirect fire bombarded a base hosting U.S. military members in Syria.

Since the beginning of 2022, Top Iranian officials have repeatedly vowed to avenge the death of Soleimani, threatening violence against American personnel involved in his assassination. On January 3, Tehran sanctioned 52 Americans including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley and former White House national security advisor Robert O’Brien. Iran’s Head of Judiciary Ebrahim Raisi promised the Americans involved in Soleimani’s death would “not be safe anywhere on the globe.”

This latest round of rocket fire suggests Iran’s threats are not purely symbolic in nature. More concerning, Tehran has been supplying its Iraq-based militias, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) with more sophisticated weaponry in recent months. In June, the Commander of the U.S. Central Command General Kenneth McKenzie describedhow Iran and its proxies in Iraq have begun to use explosive-laden drones in a dangerous and potentially lethal escalation in the region.

While Iran has maintained terrorist activity vis-à-vis its proxies in the region, its leadership is facing political turmoil at home. A series of worker’s strikes and labor protests have swept Tehran over the last year, potentially threatening the permanence of the regime. Iran’s leaders need a “win” amidst these crises and will likely follow through, at least to some degree, on threats to avenge Soleimani’s killing.  Therefore, rocket and drone attacks targeting U.S. assets in the region are likely to continue.