Surprise in Venezuela
by The Menges Hemispheric Security Project
When everybody thought that Hugo Chavez would have his way, Venezuelan voters narrowly rejected the President’s constitutional “reforms” by a margin of 51% to 49%. The proposed changes to the constitution included eliminating presidential term limits as well as vastly expanding presidential powers while restricting the rights of the citizenry. In addition, the proposed “reform” would have given authorities sweeping powers in the case of a national emergency, including detention without charges as well as additional controls on the news media.
No go for Hugo: Chavez’s dictatorial “reforms” were beaten yesterday.
Unlike in some previous elections, millions of Venezuelans went to vote yesterday. In fact, some people complained that the voting stations opened late and closed early. There were some clashes between the police and the opposition forces and ultimately there was an attempt against the life of former Venezuelan Defense Minister, Raul Isaias Baduel. A man in a car went directly towards where Baduel and four other people were standing outside the balloting station injuring four people. When they started responding by throwing rocks at the car, the man pulled a gun and shot once. Then he ran away.
[More]Luckily, Baduel was not injured. Baduel, who headed a civic-military operation that returned President Hugo Chvez to power following a brief coup, recently branded the intended constitutional reform a “new coup d’tat”, and urged people to vote NO. After the incident, Baduel suggested that the National Electoral Council (CNE) convene a meeting between the political groups supporting and rejecting President Hugo Chvez’s proposed changes to the Constitution, parliamentarian Ismael Garca said. “I delivered a letter from General Baduel to the CNE at 3:00 pm outlining a proposal that the groups supporting the No vote and those supporting the Yes vote meet before the results are announced,” he explained.
General Baduel said the President had tried to force the Venezuelan people’s acceptance of constitutional reforms and had manipulated the people’s feelings in an effort to win their approval. He also warned that Mr. Chavez may now use other means, such as executive order, to pass some of the measures, which include ending other proposals that would abolish the independence of the Central Bank, limit individual rights under states of emergency, and create new forms of community-owned property.
The vote ends a tense campaign period, which included repeated protests by opposition groups and violent clashes with police. Election tallies continued past midnight, when officials finally released a count indicating a narrow victory for opponents of the constitutional reform. It was the first defeat for President Chavez since his election to the presidency in 1998. In a nationwide address, Mr. Chavez congratulated his adversaries but said there is a long battle ahead. The President said the reform plan is not dead yet, suggesting he may try again to turn the proposals into law.
The political opposition erupted in celebration, shooting fireworks into the air and honking car horns. The outcome is a stunning development in a country where Chvez and his supporters control nearly all of the levers of power. Almost immediately after the results were broadcast on state television, Chvez conceded defeat, describing the results as a “photo finish.”
Analysis
Yesterday’s results are not an indication that Chavez’s power has been diminished; it has just not been increased, for the moment. If we consider his declarations, he has said that he accepts the results “for now.” He also said that the vote is proof of the credibility of Venezuela’s institutions and that his ideas to revamp the constitution are “still alive.” So we have to be very careful and vigilant about what happens in the next few days.
One possibility is that the margin of difference between the NO and the Yes votes is larger and the National Electoral Council cooked the books and made it appear as a narrow defeat for Chavez. In other words it is possible that he lost by a much wider margin. We have to keep in mind that students were monitoring the vote count and they are largely responsible of what happened yesterday. They are the true heroes of this result.
Another possibility is that the Yes vote defeat was an intelligent, calculated, political decision made by Chavez to calm and weaken the opposition and avoid continued protests. He may have decided to listen to his mentor, Hanz Dietrich, the German ideological father of XXI century socialism, and a strong supporter of Latin American integration into a socialist Bolivarian framework. Dietrich wrote a column on November 11, expressing concern over Baduel’s position and advising Chavez to co-opt Baduel since he believed that the general’s surprising move indicated a willingness to become the opposition leader that Venezuela did not have. Thus, if Chavez pushed the reforms too far in the face of a stronger, more unified opposition it could create greater resistance among the Venezuelan people, while elevating Baduel and ultimately causing more trouble for the regime.
So for now, Chavez has decided to go down quietly but in the next days and weeks we will see the true colors of this dictator in the making.
Sorpresa en Venezuela
La reforma constitucional propuesta por el presidente Hugo Chvez fue rechazada por el pueblo venezolano que mayoritariamente voto por el “No” en el referndum realizado en ese pas. Segn el conteo de votos, el “No” obtuvo el 51% por ciento, mientras que el “S”, obtuvo el 49% por ciento. Los resultados de ayer no significan que el poder de Chvez se haya disminuido; tampoco se han incrementado por el momento.
En su propuesta de reforma constitucional, el jefe del Estado venezolano plante la extensin del periodo presidencial a siete aos, as como la posibilidad de ser reelegido. En concreto, la derrota le niega la posibilidad de reelegirse indefinidamente en el poder. Tras conocerse los resultados, una explosin de jbilo se produjo entre los seguidores del “No” quienes se haban reunido frente a la sede del Consejo Nacional Electoral a la espera de los resultados.
Chvez ha reconocido que ha sido un “final de fotografa”, por lo ajustado de los resultados, pero no concede ms que una derrota “por ahora” . Ataviado con su ya tradicional camisa roja y acompaado por su gabinete de gobierno, Chvez ha comparecido sonriente varias horas despus de lo previsto. Se esperaban resultados a las ocho de la tarde (0.00 GMT), pero no ha comparecido hasta pasada la una y media. Han sido horas de mucha tensin, en las que los partidarios y los detractores de la reforma aguantaban en vilo los resultados de la consulta.
“Nos venci la abstencin (…) por ahora no pudimos”, ha dicho el mandatario, aunque dice que contina “haciendo la propuesta” de reforma constitucional, es decir, la mantiene, ya que, dice, es la va para “acelerar” la instauracin del socialismo en Venezuela. Ha llamado a sus partidarios a no desanimarse. Pero, sobre todo, no se da por vencido. “Seguiremos trabajando, haremos el esfuerzo ms grande para lograr la mxima inclusin social, la igualdad como principio del sistema, ya buscaremos la manera”. “Esta propuesta (de reforma constitucional) no est muerta, sigue viva, y yo no la retiro”, sostuvo Chvez.
Chvez pretenda el cambio de 69 artculos de la Constitucin de 1999, una reforma que le habra dado un poder casi sin lmites. Para empezar, habra permitido reelecciones ilimitadas para el presidente y ampliaba de seis a siete aos el mandato presidencial. Adems, le daba el control de las reservas de divisas extranjeras, del banco central, de la ordenacin territorial del pas y mayores poderes para expropiar propiedades o censurar medios de comunicacin en situaciones de emergencia. Tambin reduca a seis horas la jornada laboral y creaba un sistema de seguridad social para los trabajadores informales y autnomos.
La campaa por el No’ fue liderada por el movimiento estudiantil surgido en mayo con ocasin de la no renovacin de la licencia del canal opositor RCTV. Recibi adems el espaldarazo del ex ministro de Defensa y emblemtico general retirado Ral Baduel, que lider el movimiento cvico militar que derrot el golpe de 2002 y devolvi a Chvez al poder. Baduel afirm que “debemos estar en alerta ante la posibilidad de imponer esos cambios por una va distinta a la Asamblea Constituyente, por ejemplo, a travs de leyes habilitantes”. El No’ tambin fue apoyado por una disidencia “chavista” integrada por el partido socialdemcrata Podemos, varios intelectuales y hasta la propia ex esposa del presidente, Mara Isabel Rodrguez, que fue constituyente en 1999.
Se reportaron algunas irregularidades y algunos votantes se quejaban que algunas mesas de sufragio haban abierto muy tarde otras haban cerrado muy temprano y algunos centros de votacin reportaron demoras en el proceso. El diputado Ismael Garca, de Podemos, denunci que “un espontneo sac un arma contra el general Ral Baduel”, en uno de los pocos incidentes registrados en esta jornada. “Se debe averiguar quin envi a este espontneo”, que quizs se vio alentado por la “exagerada violencia verbal y las amenazas para intentar atemorizar” que se desprenden de los discursos del gobernante, aadi el legislador, que no dio ms detalles del asunto. Baduel sali ileso del atentado en su contra cuando sala del centro de votacin del Parque De Ferias San Jacinto, cuando un vehculo intent atropellarlo y debido a esta accin cuatro personas salieron heridas.
Anlisis
Los Resultados de ayer no significan que el plan de reforman la Constitucin de haya terminado. Si leemos sus declaraciones, el dice que acepta los resultados “por ahora.” Tambin declar que los resultados son prueba que la credibilidad de las instituciones Venezolanas y que sus ideas de cambiar la constitucin “siguen vivas.” Tenemos que estar muy alerta a lo que pase en los prximos das.
Un posible escenario es que el margen de diferencia entre el SI y el NO sea mayor que el publicado y que el Consejo Nacional de Elecciones haya alterado los resultados para que la victoria de la oposicin aparezca minscula. Debemos reconocer que los estudiantes monitorearon el conteo de votos y son los hroes de la jornada de ayer.
Otra posibilidad es que la derrota del SI haya sido una decisin poltica inteligente y calculada por parte de Chvez para calmar a la oposicin y evitar mas protestas. Quizs le hizo caso a su mentor Hanz Dietrich, el idelogo alemn de la idea del socialismo del Siglo XXI y gran promotor de la integracin Latinoamericana dentro de un marco Bolivariano Socialista quien el da 11 de Noviembre escribi una columna expresando su preocupacin por la posicin del General Baduel. Dietrich aconsej a Chvez que coopte a Baduel ya que crea en la posibilidad que el general se convirtiera en lder de la oposicin Venezolana; un lder que hasta la aparicin del ex ministro de Defensa, no exista. Por ello, si Chvez empujaba demasiado las reformas, podra crear ms resistencia de la poblacin Venezolana contra el mandatario, dificultando su capacidad de gobernar y elevando la imagen de Baduel como lder opositor, creando ms problemas para el gobierno.
Por ahora, Chvez ha decidido aceptar los resultados pero veremos en los prximos das la verdadera cara de este dictador en potencia.
Mr. Gaffney is the host of Secure Freedom Radio, a nationally-syndicated radio program heard weeknights throughout the country. He is an associate author of highly acclaimed Shariah: The Threat to America and the publisher of over a dozen other books and monographs from the Center for Security Policy Press.
In April 1987, Mr. Gaffney was nominated by President Reagan to become the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy, the senior position in the Defense Department with responsibility for policies involving U.S.-USSR relations, nuclear forces, arms control, missile defense policy and U.S.-European defense ties. He acted in that capacity for seven months during which time, he was the Chairman of the prestigious High Level Group, NATO’s senior politico-military committee. He also represented the Secretary of Defense in key U.S.-Soviet negotiations and ministerial meetings.
From August 1983 until November 1987, Mr. Gaffney was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Forces and Arms Control Policy under Assistant Secretary Richard Perle.
From February 1981 to August 1983, Mr. Gaffney was a Professional Staff Member on the Senate Armed Services Committee, chaired by the late Senator John Tower (R-Texas). And, in the latter 1970’s, Mr. Gaffney served as an aide to the late Senator Henry M. “Scoop” Jackson (D-Washington) in the areas of defense and foreign policy.
Mr. Gaffney holds a Master of Arts degree in International Studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a Bachelor of Science in Foreign Service from the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service.
Mr. Gaffney’s leadership has been recognized by numerous organizations including: the Department of Defense Distinguished Public Service Award (1987), the U.S. Business and Industry Council’s Defender of the National Interest Award (1994), the Navy League of the United States’ Alfred Thayer Mahan Literary Achievement Award (1999), and the Zionist Organization of America’s “Louis Brandeis Award” (2003), the Western Conservative Summit’s Stephen H. Long Award (2015), the Council for National Policy’s George Washington Military Leadership Award (2016) and the IMPACT Award from Ginni Thomas and United in Purpose (2017).
Mr. Gaffney was born in 1953 and resides in the Washington, D.C. area.
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