Syrian Army Recaptures Deir ez-Zor City from Islamic State

On November 3^rd, the Syrian Army (SAA) and its allies recaptured Deir ez-Zor city from Islamic State, which was the group’s last stronghold in Syria.

The group still controls about 40 percent of Deir ez-Zor province, and the last significant town being held by Islamic State is Abu Kamal, near the Iraqi border in eastern Syria.

On the Iraqi side, Iraqi forces have entered al-Qaim in an offensive to recapture al-Qaim and Rawa from IS. Iraq’s security forces retook a border crossing on the highway between al-Qaim and Abu Kamal from IS fighters, hours after entering al-Qaim.

Deir ez-Zor had been almost entirely controlled by IS since 2014 and the campaign to retake the city began in September, when the Syrian army managed to break the three year siege of the city.

Two separate campaigns began, with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on the eastern side of the Euphrates River, and the Syrian Army, the Russian and Iranian military and Hezbollah working in conjunction on the other side of the river, to take back Deir ez-Zor from IS.

Deir ez-Zor is a key city because of its oil-rich territory and because it shares a border with Iraq which allowed IS fighters, weapons and goods to travel between the Syria and Iraq.

Raqqa was the other remaining IS stronghold with the group claiming it as the de-facto capital. On October 17^th, SDF defeated IS after a four-month battle for the city.

IS has suffered a series of defeats in recent months to Iraqi government forces, who are advancing along the Euphrates river on the other side of the border. Iraqi forces retook Mosul in July, which was proclaimed the IS capital in Iraq in 2014.

Islamic State has lost more than 90 percent of the territory it once held in Iraq and Syria at the height of its power in 2014 and 2015.

U.S. forces have estimated that there are 1,500-2,500 fighters left in al-Qaim and 2,000-3,000 in Albu Kamal.

Russia wants to see the Syrian government take back all of its territory and Iran wants the Syrian government to control the area so a land route linking Iran and Lebanon can be established.

SDF wants to seize as much territory as possible to increase its chances of defending against a government takeover of the areas it holds, including Raqqa and other areas in the northeast where it has gained a measure of autonomy. The U.S. who has backed the SDF, wants to defeat IS and also counter Iranian influence in the region.

SDF hopes for negotiations that will support their autonomy in northern Syria but the Syrian government is asserting its claim to areas captured by the SDF from IS.

On October 29^th, the Syrian government declared Islamic State’s former capital Raqqa would be considered occupied until the Syrian army takes control. This may lead to new confrontation that could draw the U.S. in more deeply, as it helped SDF capture Raqqa.

The U.S. has not stated how military support for the SDF will evolve after Islamic State’s defeat because the U.S. has been very adamant that its only goal in the region is to defeat IS.