The Baghdad Bombings and Their Implications

At least 26 civilians killed and dozens wounded from suicide car bombings in Baghdad that occurred late Tuesday evening, May 29. The attacks took place within hours of each other, one in the Karrada district in front of a popular ice cream shop, and the other near the Public Pension Office in the Shawaka area. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for both attacks via its affiliated Amaq news agency.

Though validity of this assertion is uncertain, it is highly likely that the jihadist group is to blame given that the target was Shia Muslims, who account for more than half of the Baghdad population, breaking their all-day Ramadan fast.

The attacks mirror last year’s suicide bombing in Karrada where over 300 people were killed in the deadliest attack on civilians since the war began. These recent high-profile bombings are representative of IS’s effort to preserve its influence despite mounting pressure from coalition forces.

IS has steadily begun to lose its foothold in Iraq it established in 2014, when it took control over the second largest city in Iraq, Mosul, which would come to serve as a stronghold for the group’s efforts there. In 2014, it also captured cities such as Fallujah as well as conducted many attacks throughout the country. However, in 2015 the Iraqi government’s offensive strategy against IS started to become effective.

From the span of April 2015 to present day the Iraqi forces have worked to regain control over cities such as Tikrit, Fallujah and central Ramadi. October 2016 marked the beginning of their operation to seize Mosul. For the past seven months, the Iraqi forces have been vying to take back control of the city, “the last major IS urban stronghold in the country.” The Tuesday suicide attacks come as Iraqi forces work to recapture Mosul. Presently, they have succeeded in regaining the city’s entire eastern portion and large segments of the western half as well.

The Baghdad bombings point out that IS is losing its territorial grip in Iraq. The Iraqi government is putting pressure on all sides of IS and in turn the jihadists have executed a series of terror attacks aimed at drawing public attention away from recent defeats.

In other words, the jihadists’ loss of territory and power in Iraq has resulted in them wanting to prove their remaining influence by utilizing bold and violent acts. Thus, this violence provides a distraction from their losses in the ongoing war and allows them to maintain influence.

It is clear that the territorial hold IS has in Iraq is decreasing; however, it is also clear that the end of its terror strikes is far from over. And the bombings in Baghdad illustrate that IS is not just targeting the government, but innocent Shia Muslims and other civilians as well seeking to emphasize the sectarian divide that dominates Iraqi politics. Iraqi commanders have conceded that IS attacks are likely to increase at least in the short term as the group continues to face battlefield losses. It is even more likely that these attacks will continue to target Shia Muslims who make up the majority population in Iraq.

Due to the violent conflicts that have ensued over the years, more than 3 million Iraqis have been displaced, and given continued IS attacks their return to their homes will remain delayed, which impacts both internal Iraqi stability as well as puts pressure on Iraqi’s neighbors.

What is certain is that Iraq remains a volatile state. While the government may be regaining territory, the end of IS in this region is not nearing anytime soon. The recent bombings in Baghdad illustrate this conclusion and indicate that, in the short-term at least, IS is here to stay.