The ever-shrinking al-Qaeda

By Bryan Hill

Al-Qaeda in Iraq is deteriorating, and U.S. troops have the momentum.

Looking for new evidence of the surge’s success?   The U.S. military has provided it – in the form of a diary captured during a raid last November near the northern Iraqi city of Balad.   The material, since translated by the armed forces and released to the public over the weekend, spans 16 pages and documents the travails of Al-Qaeda cells in the region.

It begins, "I am Abu Tariq, Emir of al-Layin and al-Mashahdah Sector."   The entries that follow are a blow-by-blow description of the defeats, setbacks, and difficulties experienced by the "Emir" and his followers.

Where once Abu Tariq was able to boast of controlling more than 600 fighters, his numbers have "dropped down to 20 or less" due widespread defections.   Further entries list the precipitous losses of five local battalions:

• The Laylat al-Qadr Martyrs: once a "well-equipped" unit with more than 200 fighters, it has now dwindled to ten members.
• Battalion of Abu-Haydar al-Ansari: this unit originally controlled 300 members with good weapons and more than a dozen vehicles, but has diminished to only two fighters, "one of whom was arrested and one of whom was injured…." 
• Battalion of Hudhayfah Ibin Al-Yaman: 60-plus strong, this group of fighters is nonetheless "frozen due to their present condition and the condition of their families." 
• Battalion of al-Ahwal: in Abu Tariq’s own words, "most of its members are scoundrels, Sectarians, and non-believers [sic]." 
• Battalion of Muhammed bin Muslimah: after its leader was killed by a U.S. helicopter, many of the fighters "deserted."

As for the cause of these losses, Abu Tariq focuses his ire on those Sunnis, once loyal to al-Qaeda, who have abandoned the Islamist cause and joined the U.S.-backed al-Sahwa, or "Awakening," movement.  Comprised of former insurgents and sectarians, it is part of the larger Concerned Local Citizens program, organized and abetted by the U.S. military and Iraqi Security Forces, which has helped convert former neighborhood gangs and militias into agents of stability. 

According to Abu Tariq, his men "changed course 360 degrees" because of the Awakening.  For example, of the 200 members of the Laylat al-Qadr Martyrs, "some were killed and some arrested but the majority joined al-Sahwa."

Conversations with military officials reveal that while the U.S. surge has captured headlines in this country, the real news from Iraq is the widespread growth of the Iraqi Security Forces – whose ranks have swelled by 120,000 in twelve months.  This growth, fed by the burgeoning al-Sahwah movement, has shifted the momentum in Iraq, and has helped spur the mass defections documented by Abu Tariq.

U.S. officials also acknowledge that they view the release of the diary as part of a new, concerted information campaign to undermine the insurgents’ legitimacy.

"We have to get our message out," said an anonymous U.S. soldier to the Washington Post.   "I firmly believe the information part of this conflict is as very vital as the armed element of it… we don’t want to lose that to al-Qaeda."

The new documents leave no doubt – the military’s new campaign is taking its toll.  Heed again the words of Abu Tariq: "We were mistreated, cheated, and betrayed by some of our brothers who used to be part of the Jihadi movement…we found out that those people were nothing but hypocrites, liars, and traitors who were waiting for the right moment to switch sides…."