The Islamic Emirate of Waziristan and the Bajaur Tribal Region: The Strategic Threat of Terrorist Sanctuaries

The Strategic Threat

            The existence of sanctuaries in both The Islamic Emirate of Waziristan and Bajaur represents a major threat to international and regional security. On an international scale, autonomous control of a territory can allow terrorists to plan large-scale attacks similar to 9/11. Indeed, the Pakistani sanctuaries have allowed al-Qaeda to organize one such attack already. In August of 2006 a plot to simultaneously blow up 10 U.S.-bound passenger airlines with liquid explosives was foiled by British and U.S. officials. According to reports, 24 suspects were arrested as part of the sting operation.[xxv] One of the prime suspects in the operation was Pakistani militant and al-Qaeda operative Matiur Rehman. Rehman, known as al-Qaeda’s bomb expert, has been connected to numerous terror operations, including the murder of Wall Street journalist Daniel Pearl, the numerous assassination attempts on Pakistan President Musharraf, and the March 2006 attack on the U.S. consulate in Karachi.[xxvi] According to Pakistani officials, Rehmen found safe-haven in the tribal areas of Waziristan and South Punjab and was in “constant communication” with al-Qaeda’s top leaders.[xxvii] Furthermore, according to British officials, several of the detained assailants traveled to “training camps in the Waziristan area of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan for [terrorist] training,” during the winter of 2006.[xxviii]

The existence of the Pakistan sanctuaries have allowed for some of the necessary requirements for carrying out a large-scale attack.  The organizer of the attacks, Matiur Rehman, found in Waziristan a “command center,” where he had the “time, space, and ability to perform competent planning and staff work,” and could “assemble needed people, money, and materials” to execute the operation.[xxix] The sanctuary also provided the space to recruit and train the other operatives who traveled to the region. Had the London airline plot not be foiled, death tolls would have rivaled those of 9/11. Military analyst Bill Roggio is correct in his conclusion: “Al-Qaeda is using the camps to train their international cadres and recruits for terror missions against the world. The destruction of al-Qaeda’s safe haven in Afghanistan during Taliban rule has been essentially been negated by the rise of Talibanistan in western Pakistan.”[xxx]

Regionally, the tribal sanctuaries also pose a security risk. While NATO forces attempt to help the nascent Afghanistan democracy increase security, the existences of the Waziristan and Bajaur sanctuaries have proven to be a serious impediment. Bill Roggio notes that “the Taliban and al-Qaeda now have the freedom to train, arm and infiltrate foot soldiers, IED and suicide cells into Afghanistan with little fear of reprisal from the Pakistani government.”[xxxi]According to NATO statistics, since the signing of the Waziristan Accord in September 2006, attacks into Afghanistan along the border with Waziristan have increased by almost 300 percent. Consequentially, U.S. military deaths in the region were almost double during this period, in comparison to what they were during the same time period during 2005.[xxxii] Further emphasizing the strategic importance of the sanctuaries, recent reports have indicated the al-Qaeda fighters wounded in Afghanistan are being treated for their wounds in Bajaur hospitals.[xxxiii]

These attacks are not only destabilizing the Afghan democracy, but they are slowly reducing the willpower of NATO forces to fight. As public opinion within nations contributing forces to Afghanistan continues to absorb the increased violence, their intensifying distaste for the mission has caused many to question their commitments.[xxxiv]

Safe-havens in Pakistan have also ensured that top al-Qaeda targets Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri remain at large. On a tactical level, the importance of these two leaders has diminished in the past several years. However, their symbolic and ideological position within the Islamist movement still makes capturing or killing them a high priority. So long as the sanctuaries remain, there is a risk that these two leaders will continue to evade U.S. officials. While a number of attempted strikes on Zawahiri have occurred, the failure of both operations is a testament to the safety the sanctuaries provide.

The continued rule of Pakistan President Musharraf is also tied to the tribal regions. Musharraf has attempted to maintain a political balance within the country so as to maintain power over the more hard-line elements of the government. After the failure of Pakistan to win a military victory within Waziristan, Musharraf was forced to accede control of the region. Political analysts have described the recent suicide attack, which killed 42 at a Pakistan military training facility, as an example of the increased opposition to Musharraf from Islamists radicals. These radicals are largely led and supported by al-Qaeda and Taliban militants within the tribal regions.[xxxv] If the Islamist insurgency within Pakistan is able to topple the government and possibly gain control of Pakistan’s military arsenal, this could lead to even further problems in the region.