The reason why China threatens to “nuke Japan continuously”

In perhaps the most reckless threat ever made, China has threatened to “nuke Japan continuously” if Japan supports the US in protecting Taiwan from a Chinese invasion.

It is the first time ever that any state with nuclear weapons openly threatened a non-nuclear state with a nuclear attack –and not just any nuclear attack but a massive and continuous one.

The threat is in a video originally posted on a military comment channel on the Chinese video site called Xigua. It was soon removed, but after two weeks it has now reappeared on a Communist Party channel in Baoji, a major city in China’s northern province of Shaanxi. suggesting the threat is not just from some ultra-Chinese nationalist military people, but from the ruling Communist Party.  After posting it in Baoji, it was also taken down.

So the question arises, what is going on here?  Initially the video appeared in response to a Japanese White Paper that argued that a reunification threat by China to take Taiwan would pose “an existential” threat to Japan.  The White Paper went on to suggest that Japan would have to support the US in backing Taiwan militarily.

Japan has quite a small military, in part because the Japanese constitution imposes a limit on Japan’s self defense forces, and in part because Japan has relied on the United States for its security.  Last May Japan scrapped its 1% GDP cap on defense spending and increased its national budget to $51 billion to include purchase of more stealth fighters, missile systems and warships.  Japan mainly relies on the US Patriot air defense system for land-based defense, and on AEGIS for ship based ballistic missile protection.  The country is building up to a fleet of 147 F-35 stealth fighter jets and is retiring its F-15J’s, which are now reaching end of life.  In particular, Japan is planning to equip two Izumo-class helicopter carriers with the F-35B, giving Japan the ability to project power around China. In 2020 Japan launched the first of the new Soryu-class submarines, planning to buy 22 in all.  These are diesel electric submarines and the first to use advanced lithium ion batteries.  These submarines also have hydrogen power packs enabling them to stay submerged for much longer periods.  Coupled to sophisticated silencing techniques, as these submarines come onstream Japan will have a strong capability to counter China’s growing fleet. (The US does not have diesel-electric submarines and relies entirely on nuclear powered submarines.)

But Japan does not have nuclear weapons. Occasionally some voices are raised saying that Japan needs such weapons. Back in February Japan, despite its strong anti-nuclear proliferation stance, refused to sign the new Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.  Neither the US, China, Russia nor any major European countries signed the treaty. Under the circumstances it would be wrong to misread Japan’s intentions on not signing the new Treaty.  Some say Japan could rapidly become a nuclear state if it wanted to do so, as it has a large stockpile of plutonium and an active space program to launch long range weapons.  But it would take many years and a major change in policy that no doubt would spark major home opposition, given Japan’s experience with the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and its post-World War II aversion to weapons of mass destruction.

Which is why the Chinese threat is crude and entirely inappropriate.

China know that the US has a defense treaty with Japan (Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan) and stations advanced fighter aircraft in Japan and on Okinawa that include F35’s, F-18’s, F-15’s and F-16’s along with AWACS and other surveillance aircraft.   The US also bases a significant part of its Pacific fleet in Japan, including a home port for the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), its forward deployed nuclear powered aircraft carrier.  Any nuclear attack on Japan, therefore is sure to be a nuclear attack on the United States and would trigger massive American nuclear retaliation. Thus these recent threats are as much a nuclear strike threat against the United States as Japan, and there is no doubt at all the Japanese understand this well.

Moreover, any reunification attempt by China against Taiwan is highly unlikely to involve nuclear weapons for the simple reason that it would kill most of the densely packed population of Taiwan (about 26 million people) even in a relatively small strike and could also involve nuclear retaliation from the United States.  Taipei city, for example, has about 2.7 million people and the nearby population around the city is over 7 million.  On the other end of the island, Kaohsiung city, a major maritime port near where Taiwan’s navy is based, has a population of nearly 2.8 million. There is no role for even tactical nuclear weapons other than to kill off an entire population, which would make a cruel joke out of the reunification idea.

So why prepare a crude threatening video that threatens to annihilate Japan and announces that China has changed its no first use nuclear weapon’s policy by creating an exception for Japan?

One explanation is that the video reflects an internal policy fight in China between those who want to recklessly attack Japan and Taiwan, and those who are more sensible and reluctant to get the rapidly growing country into a war involving mass casualties and destruction.  In short what we may be seeing is an extremely nationalistic pro-war faction in the military and the ruling Communist party fighting to get control of the country.  In that context it looks like currently mainline Communist party operatives are taking down the video, and perhaps other internal manifestations of the argument, as fast as they can, while trying to look to the outside world as tough minded and decisively in favor of Taiwan reunification. Hu Xijin, the editor of China’s Global Times, a mouthpiece for the regime, news says that Japan will be destroyed if it intervenes in a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan in a military invasion, but he says nothing about nuclear weapons and implies only that China is much stronger than Japan, which everyone knows.  But Hu also avoids mentioning the United States and the role it would play.  China’s policy is to try and hoodwink the US into standing aside and not fighting in case China attacked Taiwan.  What has really irritated Beijing is that Japan’s new policy helps keep the US feet to the fire in protecting Taiwan.

That’s why some Chinese want to continuously nuke the Japanese.