The Taliban’s triumph in Afghanistan: A win for Russia, China and Iran?

Experienced in using soft power to export its interests and ideology, Tehran’s ability to manipulate the fall of Afghanistan is imminent. Historically, Iran’s modus operandi centers on using proxy warfare to establish Shia safe havens in destabilized countries. Tehran’s leadership could be eyeing Afghanistan as the perfect arena to train and employ the thousands of able-bodied men desperately seeking an income as a way to form organized and loyal militias, similar to their tactics in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Another outcome of Iran’s engagement in Afghanistan is for Tehran to gain stronger alliances with other regional players, including China and Russia. In March, China signed an agreement with Iran worth $400 billion in investments in exchange for oil over a twenty-five-year time frame. Chinese-Iranian cooperation is likely to expand as both countries wish to gain a foothold, in some capacity, in Afghanistan.

Similar to Beijing, Moscow views the fall of the Afghan government and the rise of the Taliban as a moment ripe for manipulation. Russia will prioritize maintaining the security of its borders while simultaneously gaining a military footprint in the Middle East. Although China and Russia are not always aligned, minimizing the American presence around the world is a shared ambition. Moscow and Beijing will likely work together in the form of international forums that exclude the U.S. position.

The Taliban’s rise is also a big success for Qatar. Propping up and supporting far-right Islamist movements has been a staple for Doha. In fact, prior to the Gulf reconciliation that stemmed from the 2021 Riyadh agreement, Doha was largely isolated from its neighbors due to the strong material and popular support it provided to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Similar to Iran, Qatar should have no issue aligning with the Taliban and perhaps creating a new regional bloc.