There is money to aid Ukraine. But Biden doesn’t want to give it

On January 3, 2024, National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby stated that the PDA military aid package provided to Ukraine on December 27, 2023 was the last one, and that there would be no new military aid supplies until Congress passed a new PDA supplemental bill.

KIRBY: …the President signed out the last security assistance package for which we had replenishment authority funds. That’s it. We need the supplemental passed so that we can provide additional security assistance to Ukraine. …there’s no other magical pot to dip into to try to get support for Ukraine… I’m not aware of any Band-Aid fix that can be done. I mean, I don’t want to — I don’t want to get ahead of the decision-making process here. I mean, we’re going to do what we can to continue to support Ukraine… But in terms of the kinds of security assistance that we’ve been able to provide and the frequency with which we have provided it — every two weeks — that ended on the 27th when we submitted our last one for the year, the last one that we had funding applied to.

The next day, January 4, Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Ryder repeated Kirby’s message, but clarified that the White House still has the authority to provide military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $4.2 billion:

GEN. RYDER: Right now, we’ve got roughly $4.2 billion in restored PDA authority, but again, the replenishment funds are expended… So that is the authority to spend funds, again, without having the replenishment funds in order to actually replenish our own funds. It’s the authority to spend them but not necessarily the funds available. Thus, we need the supplemental from Congress… We have the authority to spend that from available funds but wouldn’t have the ability to replenish the stocks by taking money out — or taking stuff out of our inventory… We’re out of money.

The statements of both senior commentators were widely circulated under the headlines “The money is running out for Ukraine.”

However, it is not. There is still money remaining for continuing U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. There are also military materials available.

But Biden will not allow them to be transferred to Ukraine. Why?

The administration has provided three dubious (and possibly completely incorrect) assertions:

– alleged conditionality of providing assistance to Ukraine under the PDA only with adequate replenishment of U.S. stocks;

– alleged exhaustion of funds to replenish supplies at the U.S. stocks;

– the exact size of remaining funds for aid to Ukraine through the PDA channel.

1. The alleged conditionality of providing assistance to Ukraine under the PDA only with an appropriate replenishment of U.S. own military stocks

This is precisely the reason why both Kirby and Ryder explain the suspension of the shipment of military aid to Ukraine.

KIRBY: …the President signed out the last security assistance package for which we had replenishment authority funds. That’s it. We need the supplemental passed so that we can provide additional security assistance to Ukraine.

GEN. RYDER: Right now, we’ve got roughly $4.2 billion in restored PDA authority, but again, the replenishment funds are expended… So that is the authority to spend funds, again, without having the replenishment funds in order to actually replenish our own funds. It’s the authority to spend them but not necessarily the funds available. Thus, we need the supplemental from Congress.

However, U.S. legislation does not mention any conditionality of military supplies via PDA channel with the need to replenish US military stocks. Section 506 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 makes no reference to such conditionality:

Sec. 506. Special Authority.—(a)(1) If the President determines and reports to the Congress in accordance with section 652 of this Act that:

A) an unforeseen emergency exists which requires immediate military assistance to a foreign country or international organization; and

B) the emergency requirement cannot be met under the authority of the Arms Export Control Act or any other law except this section; he may direct, for the purposes of this part, the drawdown of defense articles from the stocks of the Department of Defense, defense services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, of an aggregate value of not to exceed $100,000,000 in any fiscal year.

A update from the U.S. Department of State, dated December 27, 2023, reproduces the essence of Section 506 of the Foreign Assistance Act, recalls the peculiarities of its application in unforeseen and emergency situations, and underlines the speed of such delivery “within days or even hours”:

The use of the Presidential Drawdown Authority to direct a drawdown to provide military assistance under section 506(a)(1) of the Foreign Assistance Act (FAA) is a valuable tool of U.S. foreign policy in crisis situations. It allows for the speedy delivery of defense articles and services from Department of Defense stocks to foreign countries and international organizations to respond to unforeseen emergencies.  Such assistance can begin arriving within days—or even hours—of approval.

It is obvious that in unforeseen and emergency situations, when military supplies are transferred within a few days or even hours, it is next to impossible any corresponding replenishment of U.S. military reserves through the adoption of relevant laws by the U.S. Congress.

Moreover, during his briefing on December 14, 2023, the same General Ryder did not take such a tough approach as he demonstrated three weeks later, on January 4, 2024. At that time, he fully accepted the possibility of continuing military supplies to Ukraine through the PDA channel without congressional approval relevant legislation:

Q:  On Ukraine spending you’ve got about 4.6 billion in authority for PDA packages. Is it accurate to say that the Pentagon basically parse that $4.6 billion out in small increments until the 4.6 is exhausted, a series of 100 and $200 million PDAs?

GEN. RYDER:  …certainly we do retain the option to spend the full 4.4 but these are — these are tough choices because ultimately at the end of the day we start to have to make decisions about our own readiness and about our ability to continue to support Ukraine in the way they need to be supported on the battlefield…

Q:  So, 4.6 billion in small increments until its exhausted.

GEN. RYDER:  That is an option but again, you know, ultimately we will make — as we have from the very beginning, we will make decisions based on a variety of factors to include Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs as well as her own readiness.

Thus, the conditionality of deliveries via the PDA channel with the immediate replenishment of U.S. military reserves and, especially, the adoption of relevant laws by the U.S. Congress is absent in the U.S. legislation and therefore is a White House recent propaganda innovation.

2. “Exhaustion” of funds for replenishment of U.S. stocks

The Pentagon press secretary General Ryder at his briefing on December 14, 2023, called the level of budget funds remaining to replenish U.S. military reserves, amounting to about $1 billion, as critically low:

GEN. RYDER:  We have about $4.6 billion left – I think there are $4.4 billion left now, taking into account the latest PDA package, and about $1 billion left in replenishment funds.

As noted above, the absence or insufficient availability of budgetary funds in the U.S. military stockpile funds, according to U.S. law, does not restrict military supplies through the PDA channel to recipient countries in an emergency situation and in need to receive military materials in a matter of days or even hours. Nevertheless, since such a condition has been put forward, let’s see how justified it is.

The $1 billion in remaining funds Ryder mentioned December 14 ($1.1 billion as of November 22), are obligations for military supply orders among manufacturers that have not yet been committed (uncommitted) by the Biden administration. Compare this to:

– budgetary allocations approved by the U.S. Congress (appropriated, $25.9 billion);

– obligations on orders already committed by the Biden administration (committed, $24.8 billion);

– actual orders placed by the Pentagon among manufacturers (obligated, $16.8 billion).

Funds to replenish U.S. military stocks used for PDA supplies to Ukraine: Appropriated, Committed, Obligated, Uncommitted

Source.

The difference between the Congressional budget appropriations (appropriated, $25.9 billion) and the obligations accepted by the administration (committed, $24.8 billion) was $1.1 billion as of November 22 (uncommitted, $1.1 billion). By December 14, it may have actually decreased to about $1 billion, as Ryder claimed.

However, the difference between the obligations assumed by the administration (committed, $24.8 billion) and the amount of actual orders placed by the Pentagon (obligated, $16.8 billion) as of November 22, 2023 amounted to a huge $8 billion, or half of the orders placed by the Pentagon during 21 months of the current stage of a large-scale war.

The difference between the Congressional budget appropriations (appropriated, $25.9 billion) and the amount of actual orders placed by the Pentagon (obligated, $16.8 billion) as of November 22, 2023, was a whopping $9.1 billion.

In other words, if there is a problem with replenishing the U.S. stocks, it is not caused by the lack of new budgetary allocations from Congress, but by the Biden administration’s failure to use $9.1 bn, or 35% of the resources already allocated by the Congress to it for 2022 and 2023 financial years.

3. The amount of remaining funds for military assistance to Ukraine through the PDA channel

Military aid to Ukraine allocated by the U.S. Congress and, as of the end of 2023, not transferred to Ukraine by the Biden administration, amounts to billions of dollars.

On December 14, 2023, Pentagon press secretary Ryder estimated its size at $4.4 billion:

We have about 4.6 billion left – I think there are $4.4 billion left now, taking into account the latest PDA package

On January 4, 2024, its value, according to Ryder, amounted to $4.2 billion.

Question: …How much is left on the PDA channel for Ukraine?

Ryder: Right now we have approximately $4.2 billion of PDA authority restored.

However, these figures are questionable. Since the beginning of the 2022 fiscal year, the Biden administration has provided Ukraine with 53 packages of military assistance through the PDA: 20 packages in FY2022, 26 packages in FY2023, 7 packages in 2024.

Altogether, military aid supplied at the prices announced during these deliveries amounted to $25.9 billion, including $9.2 billion in FY2022, $15.5 billion in FY2023, $1.2 billion in FY2024.

However, in the summer of 2023, Pentagon officials said that the prices used were overestimated by $6.2 billion, and, therefore, the actual amount of the supply should be revised. Considering these amendments, the actual supplies of military assistance to Ukraine through the PDA channel as of December 27, 2023, amounted to $19.7 billion.

Since the cumulative PDA ceiling for the supply of military aid to Ukraine by the U.S. Congress was set at $25.5 billion ($11 billion in FY2022 plus $14.5 billion in FY2023), then the funds remained unused through the PDA channel at the end of 2023 were $5.8 billion ($25.5 billion – $19.7 billion).

Available funds for supplies to Ukraine via PDA channel

It is worth noting, that the amount of military assistance through the PDA not provided by the Biden administration to Ukraine, according to official Pentagon data amounts to $5.8 billion, which exceeds the estimate announced on January 4 by General Ryder of $4.2 billion, by approximately $1.6 billion.

4. Young: There is money for Ukraine.

On January 6, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young said that there is no avenue to help Ukraine aside from Congress approving additional funding to help Kyiv as it fends off Russia. “While the Pentagon has some limited authority to help Kyiv absent new funding from Capitol Hill, that is not going to get big tranches of equipment into Ukraine,” Young said.

Unlike General Ryder, who warned the day before that “we are out of money,” Young stated the contrary – that the White House has both the money and the authority to provide military assistance to Ukraine, but the Biden administration would still not give it without Congressional approval to backfill that equipment.

Therefore, the Biden administration has unused resources to help Ukraine ranging from $4.2 billion through the PDA channel (estimate of Pentagon Press secretary Pat Ryder) up to $5.8 billion (calculation based on official Pentagon data). If these funds were used at the “drip-dropper” speed characteristic of the first 19 months of the large-scale stage of the war, these resources would be enough for another 4-6 months of military operations.

In addition, the administration still has $9.1 billion at its disposal to replenish military supplies for the US own stocks. These budgetary resources were allocated by Congress back in 2022 for its use in fiscal years 2022 and 2023, but they are still not yet distributed by the Pentagon to weapons manufacturers. Assuming the average monthly contracting rate among manufacturers maintained over the past 22 months of war (at about $0.8 billion), the Pentagon still has nearly a full year to use its existing funding without new Congressional action.

If during the first 19 months of the war the average monthly supply of U.S. military aid to Ukraine amounted to about $1 billion per month (and in the summer of 2023 – $825 million), then in the last three months (October – December 2023) it was reduced by almost 2.5 times – to $400 million per month.

In 2024, judging by statements from senior Biden administration officials, it might be stopped completely.

Conclusions

1. U.S. law gives the President the right to provide military assistance through the PDA channel to a recipient country in an emergency within days or even hours. It does not make such deliveries conditional on congressional decisions aimed at replenishing U.S. military stocks.
2. The Biden administration, within the framework of the authorities granted to it by Congress, at the end of 2023 had:

– the ability to assume obligations to replenish U.S. military reserves by approximately $1 billion;

– opportunities to place orders to produce military items to replenish U.S. military stocks by $9.1 billion, or 35% of the budget allocations provided by the U.S. Congress for fiscal years 2022 and 2023. The last of these fiscal years ended on September 30, 2023, more than three months ago.

3. At the end of 2023, the PDA channel resources provided by the U.S. Congress to the Biden administration, but not used by it for military supplies to Ukraine, amount to $5.8 billion. If the intensity of military aid provided during the first 22 months of a large-scale war were maintained, these funds would be sufficient for 5-6 months of additional supplies.
4. The difference between the balance of unused funds through the PDA channel is $5.8 billion (according to official Pentagon data) or $4.2 billion (according to General P. Ryder) and the amount of obligations not assumed by the Biden administration to replenish military reserves in the amount of $1 billion means that the amount of obligations undertaken by the administration to replenish U.S. military reserves (committed) significantly, by $5.1 billion, exceeded the actual military supplies to Ukraine through the PDA channel ($24.8 billion and $19.7 billion, respectively). Therefore, if there is a gap between these two channels, it is in favor of the more significant commitments made by the Biden administration to replenish U.S. military stocks compare to the more modest size of military supplies to Ukraine. A natural solution to overcome such a gap would not be to delay deliveries to Ukraine, but, on the contrary, to accelerate them first, to provide Ukraine with military assistance in the amount of the above-mentioned difference of $5.1 billion.
5. No substantiated reasons have been found for the slowdown, let alone the cessation, of military aid supplies to Ukraine through the PDA channel, which has recently been regularly spoken about by high-ranking White House representatives.