Transport exercises suggest China is preparing to invade Taiwan

In April, we noted in a Washington Times opinion piece that the People’s Liberation Army had completed two of three major military dress rehearsals required for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

We argued the final major PLA rehearsal would likely occur in August, which the PLA would have demonstrated to General Secretary Xi Jinping and China’s Central Military Commission that they have met all the qualifications to conduct a successful invasion of the main island of Taiwan.

These exercises are the essential components of the Chinese Communist Party’s grand design to take Taiwan by force.

According to a July 23 Chinese press report, the Chinese navy has just conducted a “cross sea troop transport exercise” using the 23,000-ton civilian roll-on/roll-off (RO-RO) ship, the Chang Shan Dao, to transport multiple types of Chinese military vehicles, including “off-road tactical vehicles, wheeled infantry fighting vehicles, trucks and jeeps together with a large number of troops.”

Civilian RO-RO ships significantly enhance the Chinese navy’s amphibious lift capacity due to its possession of doors and ramps at both the bow and stern that enable combat vehicles, equipment, and troops to enter and exit the ship without having to turn around.

This increases the throughput of such material in a shorter time span. The use of these specialized ships will play a vital role in large amphibious landing missions.

This report suggests that the initial preparations for a large amphibious landing are underway. We have suggested and still maintain that in the fall, China will find an excuse to conduct the third and final dress rehearsal, thus certifying its military’s readiness to invade Taiwan.

The two earlier major exercises provided indications that Beijing was putting the pieces in place to conduct this final rehearsal.

To recap: In August 2022, the Chinese military conducted a rehearsal of a joint fire strike campaign. This past April, China conducted a joint anti-air raid campaign rehearsal under the rubric of exercise “Joint Sword 2023.”

This was the second major rehearsal for an invasion of Taiwan in the past 10 months. In each case, the CCP used the excuse of independence forces on Taiwan meeting with the speaker of the House of Representatives (Reps. Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy, respectively) as the impetus for these provocative acts, but that explanation is a cover for conducting these invasion rehearsal exercises.

In the Aug. 4-7, 2022 exercise, the Chinese military conducted its largest air-missile-maritime exercises around Taiwan witnessed thus far. This exercise tested China‘s joint force operations by employing coordinated use of space, cyber, air, army and naval forces.

The main element of this “joint fire strike” rehearsal was the firing of 11 ballistic missiles surrounding Taiwan. While unprecedented, the firing of these ballistic missiles — the joint fire strike — is designed to isolate key military and political positions to minimize the ability of Taiwan to resist follow-on invasion forces.

The highlight of Joint Sword was the large number of Chinese combat aircraft (232) employed as part of China’s “joint anti-air raid” campaign, which is designed to first establish air superiority (a temporary control of airspace) and ultimately air supremacy over Taiwan.

With an unprecedented 134 aircraft crossing the centerline of the Taiwan Strait during the exercise, the Chinese navy’s Shandong aircraft carrier operated east of Taiwan, providing air control over the eastern shore of Taiwan.

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