U.S. Considering Larger Military Role in Yemen

On Sunday, June 3, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was considering increasing U.S. military involvement in Yemen in support of the Saudi coalition against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The request for assistance comes from regional ally United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) as the Saudi coalition is engaged in a months-long operation to recover Red Sea port-city Hodeidah from Houthi control.

Hodeidah is the second-largest port city in Yemen, after Aden in the south. It is in a strategically valuable location near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea, which connects the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea. The Strait is of geopolitical importance, as it is a small, narrow waterway between the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.

The Strait is a chokepoint, and blocking or threatening it as the Houthis do could result in significantly increased energy prices for consumers in the region. More than 4% of the world’s commerce goes through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, including more than 4 million barrels of oil a day, so a long-term assault in Hodeidah will have far-reaching consequences if key infrastructure is impacted.

Developments in Hodeidah will also be key to humanitarian efforts in Yemen, as close to 80% of Yemen’s total food supply flows through its port.

In the past, Houthis have targeted aid and commercial ships with explosives-laden speedboats and missile attacks. On October 9, 2016, two anti-shipping missiles were fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen territory at American vessel, USS Mason. The Mason took defensive measures, but the missiles landed in the sea near the boat. On October 12, 2016, the Mason was attacked again, though with no casualties or damage. Three days later, on October 15, the Mason was attacked a third time. In response, a U.S. Navy destroyer launched an attack on three Houthi radar sites used to target the USS Mason, with no further escalation.

Houthis have also used their position in Hodeidah to launch missiles and unmanned drones directly into Saudi Arabia. In response, Saudi Arabia has conducted airstrikes on Houthi rebel-controlled locations, including Hodeidah. Ultimately, though, the Saudis decided against a full-scale operation due to humanitarian concerns and international pressure.

The war in Yemen began in September of 2014, when Houthi rebels stormed the capital city, Sana’a, and expelled the Saudi-backed government. In March of 2015, the Saudi-led coalition began its campaign of airstrikes. The United States also supported this coalition, providing military advisors to assist with intelligence collection and mission planning for Arab pilots. As of April, there were reportedly only 50 military personnel assisting the mission against the Houthis and an undisclosed number conducting operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

However, the New York Times recently learned from anonymous U.S. and European officials that the U.S. military had quietly expanded its operation at the request of the Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman. Green Berets were sent to the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen to assist in training, security, and missile detection.

Imports to Hodeidah are subject to international inspections, but weapons delivered to the Houthis through the Hodeidah port have been linked to the Iranian government after analysis by the Conflict Armament Research. Although Iran has denied supplying weapons to the Houthi rebels, U.S. Naval ships have seized Kalashnikovs, sniper rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, and other weapons from cargo ships in the Arabian Gulf. Independent analysis has also determined that roadside bombs disguised as rocks, anti-personnel mines, and unmanned drones used by the Houthis also bear resemblance to weapons used by Shia militias in Iraq and Lebanon.

The Saudi coalition has struggled against the highly mobile rebel group, which can quickly launch missiles, then hide under an overpass or in a building. As a result, thousands of non-combatants have been killed, injured, or displaced in coalition airstrikes.

Militarily, a coalition victory in Hodeidah would deal a huge blow to the Houthi rebels. Since the outbreak of the war, the Houthis have maintained the port city as a key logistical and military base.

The coalition has been closing in on the city in recent days after several months of fighting. On Monday, June 3, the coalition gained control of tourist resorts just outside the city. Control of Hodeidah would be considered a turning point for the coalition and give them better support for a renewed attempt to recapture the capital Sana’a from Houthi control.

Concurrently, a United Nations envoy is in talks with Houthi leadership to cede control of the port to the U.N. to avoid a coalition assault on Hodeidah. Although the talks are progressing, the Houthis have dug in nonetheless, laying mines, deploying snipers, storing weapons, and preparing guerilla operations against coalition forces.

The imminence of an assault on the city prompted the U.S. to issue a warning to the U.A.E. against conducting its assault on Hodeidah. The U.S. and international aid groups fear the assault will destroy key infrastructure that would jeopardize their ability to deliver humanitarian aid to Yemenis. For the time being, U.A.E. and Saudi officials have agreed to wait until the U.N envoy’s diplomatic attempt at a resolution, but U.S. officials are concerned Yemeni forces aligned with the coalition will act independently.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo requested an assessment of the coalitions’ needs, and whatever decision is made by the administration will wait until the U.N.’s envoy has presented his plan to the U.N. Security Council within the next two weeks.

After more than 3 years of war, the balance of power finally appears to be shifting in the direction of the Saudi coalition. This does not mean, however, that the war is near an end. The coalition must still retake the capital and contend with areas of the country where the Houthis receive popular support. Additionally, the threat from terror groups remains substantial and Yemen is still mired in a humanitarian crisis. The U.S. must weigh these issues before increasing its involvement because more direct U.S. support will not result in a decisive victory in the near future.