U.S. Will Not Promote Democracy in Rwanda

On October 8, Rwanda’s supreme court ruled that a motion to extend presidential term limits would be constitutional.  According to the high jurists, the Rwandan constitution apparently, “All depends on the opinions of the people.”  Surely the American experience could warn Rwandan leaders of the hazards of the tyranny of the masses and that a lasting constitution should provide a check on that tendency.  In fact, the U.S. president just gave a speech on the topic just a few weeks ago in late July to the African Union.  The President’s remarks were an indirect shot at Burundian president Pierre Nkurunziza who had just secured an extra-constitutional third term days earlier.

During the unrest in Burundi, U.S. State Department broadcasts did what the U.S. should do and made strong pro-democracy statements.  This caused protesters to seek refuge at the U.S. embassy.  Beyond the President’s slight at the African Union speech, the U.S. took no action to effect the outcome and never really clarified where it stood.  Was this perhaps a wink to thank Nkurunziza for AMISOM participation in the fight against Al Shabaab?  Were it not for Burundi’s participation, the nation would be hard pressed to prove its significance in U.S. relations.

Paul Kagame, on the other hand, is the teacher’s pet in the region and will face no pressure from the U.S. if his supporters change the constitution for a possible third term.  Why? The Obama administration takes their cues from Kagame in the region.  He is the reliable, predictable, and popular reformer in the eyes of the U.S.  To the U.K. and France, Kagame has lost his luster in recent years as they have come to terms with the authoritarian behaviors that accompany the stability Kagame has provided.   One thing that makes the balance of democracy unique in Rwanda is that Kagame is truly popular.  This amplifies the effect of silencing dissent.  For a deeper dive on the contradictions of Kagame’s rapport with the U.S., check out Simon Allison’s piece at Daily Maverick.