US General Mike Minihan provides the right call to action

The leaked memorandum from Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, the commander of Air Mobility Command (AMC), to his command is a significant development.

Minihan opined that, while he hoped he was wrong, the United States will be at war with China by 2025. This is because Chinese leader Xi Jinping achieved his third term at the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 20th Congress in October and created his war council in 2022, while Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024 will provide the immediate reason, and the United States is distracted in its own presidential campaign season. For Minihan, Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are aligned for conflict in 2025. Minihan also warned his AMC airmen to accept greater risks in training for the China fight, understand that military lethality matters most, and have their legal affairs in order.

There are three reasons why this memorandum is important.

First, it echoes what other senior officers have stated. In March 2021, Adm. Philip Davidson, then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stated that China would attack Taiwan before 2027. In October 2022, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday warned that rather than a 2027 window for Chinese aggression, it may come in a 2023 window. The former commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, Adm. Charles Richard, warned many times against the impending threat from the Chinese regime. Minihan’s opinion dovetails with some of the senior military leadership who have expressed publicly their opinion that aggression might come in the near term, which is eminently reasonable given Xi’s ambitions.

Second, Minihan’s remarks suggest that the United States will fight to defeat Chinese aggression against Taiwan were it to occur. That is a positive development for deterrence against Chinese aggression. The stronger U.S. deterrent capabilities are, the more likely China is deterred from an attack against a partner like Taiwan or an ally like Japan. AMC contributes to U.S. conventional deterrent capabilities by being able to sustain and reinforce U.S., allied, and partner militaries. As commander of AMC, one might then reasonably expect that Minihan is preparing his Command to support Indo-Pacific Command for likely contingencies for a Sino-American war over Taiwan. This might include ensuring that AMC could support an air bridge akin to Operation Nickel Grass in support of Israel in the 1973 war.

History has important lessons to remind AMC of the successes of the past, such as flying over “the Hump” to China, Operation Vittles, the Berlin Airlift, or fire support base resupply in Vietnam. Executing an air bridge to Taiwan, Okinawa, Guam and other key facilities is difficult, first, due to the supremely challenging surface-to-air missile threat the closer one gets to China. Second, it is also difficult because airfields will be damaged by Chinese attacks throughout the region. Third, these attacks against airfields will also hinder tanking and other aircraft that will support AMC’s fleet. Fourth, there will be attrition against AMC’s fleet due to combat losses. The losses in the fleet will be difficult to replace, even drawing upon aircraft at the boneyard at Davis-Monthan, due to a weakened defense industrial base.

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