View from Japan: Biden’s Hardline China Policy Limited to Rhetoric?
Editor’s note: this analysis was originally published by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals and is reposted here with its permission.
U.S. President Joe Biden held his first phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week. The White House said Biden conveyed his concerns about Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses against the Uighurs in Xinjiang, military pressure on Taiwan, and unfair economic practices.
Chinese officials said Xi used the call to urge Biden to reestablish dialogue mechanisms between the two countries.
Biden had been expected to first indicate a firm attitude towards China in consideration of his relations with Congress which is known for taking a bipartisan hard line on China. Until seeing specific actions, however, one cannot decide whether Biden really is firm on China.
Rather, Biden’s hardline attitude could end up as empty rhetoric.
Remember a nightmare in the second half of the Obama administration. While advocating a pivot to Asia, it cut defense spending and took no effective measures against China’s artificial island construction in the South China Sea. This supposed Asia rebalancing policy failed to be accompanied by specific actions. The Biden administration includes many former Obama officials who may have the previous administration’s “rhetoric only” DNA concerning China.
Biden Feared to Cut Defense Spending
Two potential actions by the Biden administration are viewed as matters of concern regarding its attitude on China. The first is a potential cut in defense spending at a time when the United States military balance with China is extremely important due to rapid growth in China’s military capabilities. Giving priority to domestic issues, the Biden administration is likely to seek financial resources for coronavirus countermeasures and a large economic stimulus package while cutting the defense budget. Given that Democrat hawk Michele Flournoy was passed over for defense secretary, leftist influence within the Democratic Party on defense issues cannot be ignored.
The second is a potential setback in law enforcement against China by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Departments of State and Commerce. Congress has legislated tough measures on China over theft of intellectual property and technology and human rights abuse, but such legislation must be accompanied by law enforcement to produce real effects. Under the Trump administration, the FBI focused its resources on China-related measures, the State Department promoted its networks with reliable U.S. allies, and the Commerce Department tried to close loopholes in sanctions on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei. It is uncertain whether the Biden administration will continue the Trump administration’s stepped-up use of law enforcement against China.
Beijing Changing the Status Quo Steadily
The Biden administration has created a China task force in the Defense Department to formulate a specific China policy within four months. This means that it may take no major action on China and maintain the status quo until the task force releases its report. Meanwhile, a climate change team of Biden foreign policy officials will explore cooperation with Beijing in the run-up to a planned climate change summit in April. Beijing may try to take advantage of such an approach by the Biden administration.
When the Biden administration steps up its rhetorical criticism against China, Beijing will protest, saying that the U.S. is interfering in its domestic affairs. At the same time, Chinese officials will challenge Washington by demonstrating their positive attitude towards dialogue.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s provocative and destabilizing actions are mounting, including incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, intrusions into Japan’s territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands, and the enforcement of its new coast guard law in Japanese territorial waters. Beijing also continues to diligently attempt to woo other countries with its so-called vaccine diplomacy.
China’s intention is to change the status quo in the Asia-Pacific region before the Biden administration’s rhetoric is accompanied by action. We should have a greater sense of crisis in this situation.
Dr. Masahiko Hosokawa is a professor at Meisei University and a former director general of the Trade Control Department at Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. He is also a Planning Committee member at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals
