Washington’s self-defeating foreign policy

If I were a shovel manufacturer I could make a lot of money in Washington, because Washington policymakers are digging deeper and deeper holes for the United States.

Washington is not alone: the Biden folks are getting “help” from the Europeans and Japan. But how long will that last and, in any case, what is it worth?

By now anyone who can read must realize that the best case for Ukraine is a stalemate, but the more likely case is the Kyiv regime will collapse. There are plenty of alternative scenarios but, just going on numbers, it makes little sense for Kyiv to keep playing the existential roulette wheel.

It is true that the war is putting great psychological stress on Russia. But the appearance of Valery Gerasimov, the Russian Army chief of staff, physically present leading the battle in the Zaporizhia region, where part of the Ukrainian offensive may have started, indicates the Russians are stepping up their effort not only to block the offensive but to start up one of their own.

Vladimir Putin still has to deal with many operational problems on the war front, and some at home: but so did Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Truman and Eisenhower.

This is not to say that the wars those American presidents presided over are, in any way, comparable to Ukraine operationally, politically or morally. It only says that wars cause confusion and political problems.

Ukraine is more adept at psychological warfare than the Russians (see, for example, Ukraine’s latest fake Putin broadcast), and that also causes difficulty.

But probably Russia’s biggest issue is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the “private” Wagner Group. Prigozhin has become an uncontrolled trouble maker and it is harming Putin as much as Prigozhin harms the Russian army.

It goes without saying that Putin has to understand this and will have to act. If Putin sits on his hands, he will lose and surely he must understand that.

The missing ingredient, so far as I can tell, is that the Russian army leadership (not Shoighu, the defense minister, who is really a non-factor) has to bring its complaints directly to Putin. That will be up to Gerasimov and probably awaits the outcome in Zaporizhia.

Assuming that the Russians despite their difficulties stay in the war and make a strong effort, Ukraine will pay a huge price in material and manpower.

In their latest operations, which stretch all along the eastern front and down to Zaporizhia, the Ukrainians are making minimal gains at a high cost. They are attacking in many sectors at one time, but so far are not gaining much that can be considered strategic.

The two best efforts have been a counter-offensive on the flanks of Bakhmut, aimed at Soledar, and the attack in the Zaporizhia direction – so far involving three settlements, which the Ukrainians may be able to hold for a short time.

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