What would a China-US war look like?
Relations between two countries. USA and China
Originally published by Asia Times
The most likely trigger for a conflict between the nuclear-armed rivals would be an invasion of Taiwan
Most US-sponsored war games focus on a possible American response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They also dwell on “worst-case” outcomes. The Rand Corporation, for example, wrote its scenario in the context of NATO already fighting in Eastern Europe when China launches an assault on Taiwan. And while some US war games focus on strategic outcomes, most look at tactical issues (airpower to airpower or “local” warfighting), not a full-blown war between China and the US. And while there are both historical and tactical reasons to think that China might test its prowess against lesser, but still highly important, objectives, none consider scenarios other than a direct invasion of Taiwan. China’s superior numbers of missiles, its air defenses, and its alleged dominance, also are presumed in the US wargame planning.
Some of those and other underlying assumptions may be outdated and may understate American strengths.
While China may have had hopes in the past that the US would ignore Chinese aggression against Taiwan, America’s dislike for China is at an all-time high and the chance that any administration could simply sit on its hands appears remote. By invading Taiwan, China would be taking a massive – perhaps fatal – risk of engaging the US in a big war.
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