Where was CIA when the President made the decision to go to war?

It remains unclear where we stand regarding hostilities with Iran. The President says we are involved in discussions with Tehran, and there is some hope of a negotiated peace. The Iranians say no such talks are underway. Maybe someone is lying. Maybe at this stage, Iran is no longer a unified entity, and the left and right hands are no longer communicating.

In any event, it is not too early to begin to have a conversation about how we got here. We launched a war on the assumption that the Iranian regime would, one way or the other, collapse quickly. It did not. We are now on the brink of a much larger, much more damaging conflict unless negotiations can lead to some kind of off-ramp.

How did this happen? Who advised the President that the regime would fall? And, where was American intelligence in all this? Did CIA agree with the assessment that the war would be won quickly? How could we have been so wrong?

Joe Kent and others have suggested the Israelis and their supporters in this country pushed the notion of a quick conflict hard, but that still does not answer the question. What did our people believe? What did our sources on the ground inside Iran tell us?

I’ll take a stab at answering the question. We don’t have any sources on the ground in Iran. We are totally reliant on human intelligence provided by the Israelis. We are exceptionally good at pulling electronic communications out of the air and identifying targets from above. Our technical capabilities are as good or better than any on the planet. The same cannot be said for our human intelligence apparatus. That has been withering for a long time.

CIA exists above all else to provide intelligence on plans and intentions. A satellite photo can show you that an armored division is present on your border. It cannot tell you what that division will do tomorrow. It cannot show you what is inside the mind of a national leader or how committed to a cause your opponents are. If you want to know those things you need a source inside your enemy’s headquarters, next to its leader, in the key meetings where decisions are made.

CIA does not really do that kind of thing anymore. We decided a long time ago that more or less anybody could be a spy if you just sent them to the right school for a few weeks. CIA began to promote individuals who had never recruited a source and who never spent any time in the shadows, where the real work is done. They were really good at pushing paper and creating PowerPoint presentations and not very good at the actual business of espionage. They laughed at the boss’s jokes and never challenged the prevailing groupthink.

Then along came politicization. John Brennan waged war on the basic structure of CIA and effectively neutered the Deputy Director of Operations, the guy who is supposed to “fight the ship”. Individuals were promoted on their allegiance to liberal causes and liberal politicians. Operational experience and accomplishment became largely irrelevant. We ended up with an organization that no longer has the capacity to do its core mission, recruiting spies in all the dark recesses of the planet.

None of these problems has been addressed since President Trump came back to office. The same individuals remain in place at the top who were there under Biden. The same structure exists. Nothing of consequence has changed. No one of consequence has been fired.

Intelligence is power. When you do not have it, you are completely reliant on what others tell you. In this case, that means when the Israelis and their allies pushed the idea that we needed to move now and that a decapitation strike would lead to a quick victory, there was no one in the room to counter that narrative.

We have long refused to address the issues with our human intelligence collection. Our failure to do so has now brought us to the brink of economic catastrophe. We can’t put off making the necessary reforms any longer. We need human intelligence that allows the President to avoid the rocks and steer the ship through a very stormy sea. We have to get the Central Intelligence Agency back in fighting trim.

Originally posted by AND Magazine