‘Where’s Al?’: C.S.I.S. Symposium Indicts AWOL Veep, Administration on Looming Y2K Crisis
Senate Hearing Tomorrow Promises More
Fireworks
(Washington, D.C.): Yesterday, the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS)
performed a tremendous public service. Under the leadership of Arnaud de
Borchegrave,
Senior Advisor at CSIS and journalist extraordinaire, the Washington think-tank
convened many
of the world’s preeminent experts on the so-called Millennium Bug to discuss “The Year
2000
(Y2K) Crisis: A Global Ticking Time Bomb?” Judging by the thrust of the comments
made by participants, the answer is clearly affirmative — even if the
destructive potential of
this computer “time bomb” can only be surmised at this point.
Among the preeminent specialists assembled for this discussion were: Peter de
Jager, Special
Advisor to the UK Year 2000 Task Force and the Russian Task Force on Y2K; Dr.
Edward
Yardeni, Chief Economist and a Managing Director of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell;
Alan
Simpson, producer and host of a television documentary dealing with the Y2K crisis,
“Countdown 2000”; Bruce Webster, Chairman of one of the Nation’s most
highly regarded
technical conclaves on the issue, the Washington D.C. Year 2000 Group; Keith
Rhodes,
Technical Director to the Chief Scientist for Computers and Telecommunications, General
Accounting Office; Dr. Howard Rubin, CEO Rubin Systems, Inc;
Bradley Belt, a former
Senate and SEC staff member who currently serves as Vice President for International Finance
and Economic Policy at CSIS. In addition to forceful opening remarks by Mr. de Borchegrave,
the symposium heard from Senator Robert Bennett (R-UT), chairman of the
newly created
Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem.
The Magnitude of the Problem
The dire forecasts offered by these influential figures offer an excellent backdrop for
an
important hearing examining the national security implications of the Y2K crisis to be held
tomorrow morning by the Senate Armed Services Committee. In particular, the
following
contextual observations from the CSIS summit should be borne in mind by Committee members
as they question Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre and
Lieutenant General Kenneth
Minihan (USAF), director of the National Security Agency:
- Peter de Jager declared: “If today were December 31, 1999 and our systems were in the…
state they are in today, tomorrow our economy world-wide would stop. It
wouldn’t grind to
a halt, it would snap to a halt. You would not have dial tone tomorrow if tomorrow
were
January 1, 2000. You would not have air travel, you would not have federal express, you
would not have the postal service, you would not have hot water, you would not have power
because the systems are broken.” - According to Edward Yardini, a self-described optimist, “There is a 70%
probability that a
global recession will occur as a result of Y2K. This recession will be as severe as the
1973
and 1974 recession caused by the disruption in the world’s oil supply. This time, however, the
cause will be a disruption in the flow of information.” - Senator Bennett identified seven areas likely to be materially affected by the Y2K crisis that
are
being closely monitored by his Special Committee (in descending order of priority) They are
as follows: public utilities (i.e., the Nation’s power grid and the water supply);
telecommunications; transportation; the financial
system; general government services;
general business activity and litigation. - A related observation, made first by Senator Bennett and subsequently by the other
panelists,
is that even those companies which have taken steps internally to prepare
themselves for
the Millennium Bug will not be immune to the problems it creates because of the
interconnected nature of the U.S. and the global economies.
As an illustration of the severity of the problem, Sen. Bennett cited a recent
Fortune
Magazine article which he described as concluding that, “If Y2K were to hit this
coming weekend, General Motors could not produce a single car in any one
of
their 157 manufacturing plants. That’s a very serious challenge of things to be fixed
in the next 18 months …. Multiply that by every manufacturer and every business
across the country and you see the difficulty we will be in if [corrective actions are not
taken].”
Failing Grades
Simultaneous with the CSIS event, another congressional leader on the Y2K problem —
Representative Stephen Horn (R-CA), Chairman of the House Subcommittee
on Government
Management, Information, and Technology — released a report card on status of Y2K
remediation efforts on the part of the federal departments and agencies. The report card
documented a significant slow-down in the federal government’s already inadequate progress. As
Rep. Horn stated at a press conference on 2 June: “The federal government earned an
F, and
they really had to work at it, because they had a D or so last time.” Among the government
agencies receiving unacceptable grades of D or F were the Department of Defense,
Department
of Energy, Department of State, and the Department of Transportation.
The fact that the national security agencies are in such serious trouble makes
tomorrow’s
hearing particularly timely. It must be hoped that the Armed Services Committee will
examine
with care, among other points:
- The degree to which the Secretary of Defense and senior Pentagon leadership —
both
civilian and military — grasp the gravity of the Y2K crisis and its implications for U.S.
national security. What evidence is there that minimizing the impact of the Millennium
Bug
on the Department and its vital operations is a top priority? - What steps are being taken by the armed forces to test and demonstrate on a
systemic, or
“end-to-end,” basis that Y2K compliance is being achieved? - What are the implications for efforts being mounted by the Department to adopt
“Best
Business Practices” — such as just-in-time logistical arrangements — of the sorts of
catastrophic disruptions in communications and transportation that Y2K (or, for that matter,
war) might entail? - What planning is the Department of Defense doing against the possibility that it may be
called
upon to maintain social order should some of the more apocalyptic
scenarios for the Y2K
crisis eventuate?
The Bottom Line
It is now too late to avoid altogether the myriad, devastating effects of the
Millennium Bug.
The most realistic hope is that a form of triage can yet be implemented to reduce the possibly
catastrophic effects that the United States, its people and its interests, will otherwise experience.
Even limiting the damage at this late date, however, will require urgent leadership at the
highest levels of government and industry. This will have to be manifested
in the commitment
to invest both human and financial resources on the two key aspects of such a damage-limitation
strategy: actions where they are still possible (e.g., with respect to “fixing”
mission critical
systems associated with national security, public safety, and infrastructure) and rigorous
contingency planning. This will require the sort of vision and national commitment
applied to
the Manhattan Project. (2)
No less importantly, leadership is required to prepare the American people
— and others around
the world — for what is coming. As Edward Yardini put it at the CSIS meeting:
- “We need to alarm the public. You’re not going to panic anybody a
year-and-a-half in advance of the problem. You can alarm the public, and then the
public
can pressure the politicians and the business leaders to do everything in their
power to fix this problem. If we don’t let the public in on the problem, then they
will panic sometime in the next year.”
Such leadership must begin with the President and Vice President;
there is simply no
substitute, given the immense character and potential repercussions of the Y2K crisis. Just as
Messrs. Clinton and Gore cannot avoid responsibility for declaring the “moral equivalent of war”
on the Millennium Bug, neither can they — as a number of participants in the CSIS meeting
stressed — responsibly further delay doing so. The danger is, as Steve Forbes
recently,
trenchantly put it: “We’re running out of time and this Administration isn’t leading. At
this
pace, the bridge to the 21st century may not be open when we get
there.”(3)
– 30 –
1. The same question, of course, can — and should — be asked about
the priority being accorded
the need to fix computer software and imbedded computers government-wide by the
President
and Vice President. According to Dr. Ruben, who told the CSIS symposium that he has
spoken
to both of them several times about the Y2K issue over the past few years, neither man seems “to
fully understand the nature of the problem.”
2. See previous Casey Institute products on the Y2K problem,
including: Bridge to Nowhere:
Inattention to the ‘Millennium Bug’ Threatens the Nation’s Security, Economy in the
21st
Century (No. 98-C 24, 6 February 1998) and
Will Clinton-Gore Prevent the ‘Millennium Bug’
From Driving Us Off the Bridge to the 21st Century? (
3. See Americans for Hope, Growth, and Opportunity recent release:
Americans For Hope
Growth, and Opportunity Warns Clinton-Gore Administration’s Failure To Fix Federal
year 2000 Computer Crisis Puts U.S. Economy and National Security At Risk, Forbes Cites
“Devastating” New Report on Federal Y2K Compliance (2 June 1998).
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