Why Moldova matters – End the war in Ukraine now

You probably don’t spend a lot of time worrying about Moldova. It is entirely likely you cannot find Moldova on a map.  It is a very small country in Eastern Europe and not typically in the headlines.

Unfortunately, for the whole world, though, Moldova is suddenly very important, and what is happening there suggests we continue to stumble down the road to another World War.

The government of Moldova just collapsed. Moldova is Europe’s poorest nation. It was already struggling to deal with political and economic problems before Russia invaded Ukraine, and the war in Ukraine has produced ripple effects that are crushing the nation. Moldova is being hammered by inflation, high energy prices, unemployment, a refugee crisis, and continuing Russian threats of direct intervention.

Two days ago the Russians fired a volley of missiles at Ukraine. They sent those missiles straight through Moldovan airspace without making any pretense of requesting permission or providing notice. The message was clear. Moldova is a small country. Russia will do what it likes, and if the Moldovans don’t like it then the next step might be direct Russian attacks on targets inside Moldova.

Moldova shares a 750-mile border with Ukraine. It is already on the precipice. Russian troops occupy Transnistria a disputed border region between Moldova and Ukraine. The threat is not theoretical. It is immediate.

In a stark warning on Thursday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian intelligence had uncovered a Russian plan to “destroy” Moldova.

“These documents show who, when and how Russia is going to break democracy of Moldova and establish control,” he told EU leaders at a summit in Brussels. “I immediately warned Moldova about these threats,” he added.

Moldovan intelligence services stated later that they had also identified “subversive activities” aimed at “undermining the state of the Republic of Moldova, destabilizing and violating public order.”

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of trying to turn Moldova against Russia as he claimed it had already done with Ukraine. Lavrov suggested that Moldova was the next Ukraine and that it was being absorbed into an anti-Russian alliance. Lavrov demanded that Moldova negotiate with separatists in Transnistria and suggested Russian military action against Moldova might be justified if Moldova did not do as the Kremlin directed.

The Russian military has stated that it intends to link Transnistria to the portions of Ukraine it currently occupies suggesting that offensive action against Moldova directly could be in the offing. Such action would be in conjunction with Russian efforts to seize Ukrainian territory along the Black Sea.

The Russian threat of direct military action is being made against the backdrop of longstanding Russian intelligence operations designed to destabilize the Moldovan government. The Washington Post recently reported that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has been plotting to subvert the pro-Western government of Moldova. According to the Post, the FSB has funneled tens of millions of dollars into Moldova and recruited a network of Moldovan politicians to do Moscow’s bidding. Among other things, members of this network have organized protests against the Moldovan government designed to topple it and replace it with one that will answer to Vladimir Putin.

Pro-Russian TV channels within Moldova amplify the FSB’s message. Last week the United States imposed sanctions on a long list of organizations and individuals designated as working inside Moldova to spread unrest at the behest of Moscow.

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