WILL THE X-33 DECISION USHER IN A NEW ‘GOLDIN ERA’ FOR U.S. SPACE ACCOMPLISHMENT?

(Washington, D.C.): Tomorrow, NASA administrator Daniel Goldin
is expected to make what may be the most far-reaching
space-related initiative since President Kennedy declared the
goal of putting a man on the moon. With his announcement of a
winner in a competition to design the X-33 — a flying prototype
for a reusable launch vehicle (RLV) — Dr. Goldin is taking a
step that promises, at last, to give the United States reliable,
inexpensive and prompt access to space. As such capabilities are
likely to prove indispensable elements of the United States’
future civilian technological competitiveness and a robust
national security posture, much is riding on his decision and on
its implementation.

The Shapes of Things to Come

Dr. Goldin will be picking among three dramatically different
design approaches: The first, designed by McDonnell Douglas,
involves a cone-shaped vehicle that would take-off and land
vertically. This would enable it to operate from austere launch
pads virtually anywhere, independent of the expensive complexes
traditionally used to send expendable rockets or reusable
shuttles into space.

The feasibility of such a radical launch-and-recovery concept
has been demonstrated by a series of remarkable flights performed
over the past few years at the instigation of the Strategic
Defense Initiative Organization. These experiments used a test
article recently dubbed the Clipper Graham in honor of one of the
program’s greatest champions, the late Lieutenant General
Daniel Graham (U.S. Army, retired). The Clipper Graham
also demonstrated impressive progress towards meeting a critical
test for what are known as single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO)
spacecraft: achieving the high readiness and reliability and fast
turn-arounds with low manpower requirements typical of modern
commercial aircraft but heretofore largely unknown with space
launch systems.

The other two designs would be launched vertically but land
horizontally, like the existing space shuttle. Lockheed Martin’s
concept involves a flat-bottomed, wingless rocket known as a
lifting body. Rockwell’s candidate for the X-33 resembles
somewhat that of the space shuttle, which the company also built,
although it would operate without the shuttle’s externally
mounted rockets and fuel tank.

A Sea-Change for NASA, A Fresh Start for U.S. Space
Launching

The demanding performance requirements with respect to
responsiveness and cost-effectiveness are particularly crucial
insofar as Dr. Goldin’s stated purpose is to get NASA out of the
business of owning and operating rockets in favor of an exclusive
focus for his agency on research and development activities.
According to his plan, once NASA and its selected industry
partner have produced a workable SSTO system, the latter would be
expected to raise the capital necessary to produce reusable
launch vehicles.

In theory, RLVs will prove so efficient as to enable them
strongly to compete with existing space launch services — even
the massively underpriced ones offered by the command-style
economies of Russia, Ukraine and China, to say nothing of
France’s somewhat more expensive, but state-subsidized Ariane
family of rocket boosters. As a result, charges to private sector
and government customers would be expected to enable the RLV to
operate as a viable commercial endeavor.

Getting From Here to There

The challenge will be to keep the program on track and
consistent with its remarkable genesis: The Clipper
Graham went from paper concept to launch in just eighteen months
at a cost of only $60 million. While the Clipper Graham’s design
objectives were modest compared to the X-33 and its operational
successors, this remarkable achievement illustrates what it will
take to bring SSTOs to life:

• First, the NASA bureaucracy — much of which
  regards the whole RLV concept as a threat to its
  institutional “rice bowl” — must not be
  allowed to conduct “business as usual” with
  respect to this development program. While Dr.
  Goldin has managed to date to keep the R&D program
  leading up to the X-33 choice quite streamlined, once the
  selection of a design is made, bureaucratic sclerosis is
  a real danger. This problem is already evident in some of
  the key subsystem technologies such as avionics, thermal
  materials and engines where large NASA infrastructures
  are adding much to the cost of the program without
  contributing much to the needed developmental progress.
• Second, a focus on deliverables is needed.
  An early test of the prospects for realizing Dan Goldin’s
  vision for the X-33 will be whether the winning
  contractor is obliged to begin providing actual hardware
  in a timely fashion — for example, in as little as
  six-to-eight months from contract award as was done with
  the Clipper Graham.
• And third, the U.S. military must recognize that
  it has an enormous stake in the prompt, successful
  realization of the promise of the X-33 program.
  An operational system offering the characteristics
  envisioned for the reusable launch vehicle could
  transform the Pentagon’s ability to accomplish priority
  tasks including: flexible, global reconnaissance; rapid,
  intercontinental-range precision-strike; ballistic
  missile defense; reconstitution of intelligence and other
  space assets; and space control. Defense Department
  orders for RLVs could, moreover, assure the viable
  private sector production base needed to realize Dr.
  Goldin’s dream of weaning NASA from such functions.

This, in turn, will require the Pentagon to devote
resources and consolidated, aggressive management to a
supporting role for the NASA effort — and to its own
streamlined acquisition program. The outgoing commander
of the U.S. Space Command, General Joseph Ashey, accorded
such actions a high priority. His successor, General
Howell Estes, must be encouraged to do no less.

The Bottom Line

If these steps are taken, the announcement Dr. Goldin makes
tomorrow could well usher in a golden age for U.S. achievement in
space unrivaled since President Kennedy set his sights on the
moon.

– 30 –