Will Xi Jinping Start a War Over Trump’s China Tariffs?

What will the Chinese Communist Party do now that President Donald Trump has slapped 145% tariffs on them? Most of the commentariat seems to think they’ll match the United States tit for tat on tariffs, complain mightily, and then quietly put out feelers to cut a deal. And Trump has suggested they already are. Maybe so. That’s what we would do if we were Xi Jinping. But don’t expect Xi to respond the way America would.

Xi Jinping will let his own people absorb any amount of hardship. And he’s been telling them for years to get ready to “eat bitterness.” He’s also been sanctions-proofing the Chinese economy for years. While he’s not there yet, he’s not helpless either.

Economic Retaliation and Narrative Warfare

China has banned certain rare earth mineral exports, ordered Chinese companies not to buy Boeing aircraft, and placed 125% tariffs on American imports.

It has also enlisted American proxies, of whom there’s no shortage, to make the case that the republic will collapse if Walmart’s everyday low prices go up.

Beijing will also use the American trade pressure to rally the public.

Xi can’t be seen caving in to the foreigners. If he does, his many domestic enemies might remove him, quite literally.

Even more fundamentally, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is in a battle to the death with the free world. The way the CCP sees things, only one of the two can survive – freedom is an existential threat to communism.

A Strategic Calculation

So, Xi (and his predecessors) have been preparing for war for years. Since at least 2019, state-linked media have said China is in a “people’s war” against the US.

Also, at his instruction, Xi’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is now competent enough to throw its weight around inside and beyond the first-island chain. Go about it right, and the PLA can even give the Americans a bloody nose.

So perhaps Xi Jinping thinks starting a shooting war is a reasonable option? He would have the advantage of surprise. The Americans don’t think he will (or don’t want to entertain the possibility).

It needn’t be against the US, with all that involves, but maybe Taiwan or the Philippines? This would give the US and everyone else a massive jolt. A trade war and a potential nuclear war are two different things. There will be no end to people blaming President Trump, especially as Xi claims, “You Americans pushed me into it.”

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