Yemen Truce Endangered By Downed Aircraft?

Saudi Arabia offered a truce to the Houthis Thursday, mere hours before Houthi fighters attacked cities on the Saudi/Yemeni border. 15 people were wounded and three killed when Houthi militants shelled the cities of Najran and Jizan, leading Saudi spokesmen to confirm that coalition forces would be devoted to hunting down the Houthi leaders who planned the attack. Earlier that day, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir had announced a proposed humanitarian truce between the Saudis and Houthis at a joint news conference with Secretary of State John Kerry. Al-Jubeir was certain to state that the truce was heavily dependent on the Houthis respecting the terms of the cease fire.

Houthi rebels would later agree to a truce over the weekend, in the face of increasing airstrikes from the Saudi-led coalition in the Sa’ada region of Yemen. The Saudis declared Sa’ada a military target and warned civilians to leave before launching an intensive bombing campaign ahead of the five day truce beginning Tuesday. However, many Yemeni civilians still remain in Sa’ada due to a fuel shortage in the area and attempts by the Houthis to prevent civilians from leaving. The Saudis have given little concern about collateral damage so far but with the upcoming truce and greater international interest in the war that may be changing. Of note is that the Houthis approve of the truce, but warn the Saudis about further attacks from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, based in southern Yemen. The Houthis believe that Saudi Arabia is aiding AQAP in their conflict against the Houthi rebels.

Further complicating the proposed truce is the disappearance of a Moroccan F-16 fighter jet Sunday night. Houthi rebels have claimed that they were responsible for shooting the coalition fighter jet down, releasing pictures of Houthi fighters posing with wreckage of a Royal Moroccan Air Force aircraft on social media as well as a Youtube video, but the Moroccan military has not confirmed the details surrounding the downed aircraft. Morocco has deployed six F-16s in the United Arab Emirates to aid in the Saudi attacks on Yemen. Given how the Saudis have clearly stated that the truce is entirely dependent on the Houthis respecting the terms of the ceasefire, any continued hostilities from the Houthis would likely be taken as an act of bad faith.