Health of Democracy in Burkina Faso and the D.R.C.

Blaise Compaore has been the President of Burkina Faso for 27 years.  Burkina Faso’s National Assembly will begin to study a proposal to adjust the current two-term limit, implemented back in 2000, in a way that would allow him to run again in 2015.  The specter of this type of move has already caused unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo where a re-alignment of military leadership, seemingly based on loyalty to President Kabila, was interpreted by opposition parties as preparation for a move to shift a way from democratic term limits. Without such a proposal for a referendum coming from the ruling party in Congo as in Burkina Faso, Kabila’s government denies a desire to shift away from fair elections and scheduled elections are still a long way off.  The military cadre shifts can serve to test the waters of resistance and opposition resolve.

In Burkina Faso, opposition parties will begin protests tomorrow and the referendum is a very divisive subject.  The potential for violence is a legitimate fear.  The element of a referendum to remove term limits in young African democracies triggers the potential for sociological turning points in the minds of a given population.  As a democracy begins and parties form, the hope of meaningful representation drives people to political participation.  When such hopes are eroded either by corrupt elections or unlimited term limits, a turn to violence tends to ensue.  We’ve seen too often in Latin America that such circumstances play into the hands of those who, despite their rhetoric, don’t have the people’s best interest at heart.  U.S. failure to predict, read, and respond properly to similar scenarios in Honduras and Venezuela have had lasting negative effects.

THE U.S. INTEREST

In the case of Congo, the U.S. State Department effectively offered about thirty million in democracy support to ensure fair and timely elections.  President Kabila’s most recent election was questionable and considered by most as illegitimate.  Hopefully the expectations attached to that money have been communicated strongly enough to get the desired result as the security and stability of Congo are of great importance to the U.S. interest.  Congo holds many of the crucial rare minerals for vital communications and defense technology and the Chinese are way ahead of the game in terms of extraction.  A stable democracy for Congo means that the Congolese have a better chance at benefiting from their countries wealth and the U.S. has hope for a reliable trade partner.  As things stand, the Chinese continue to march toward a monopoly on rare earth minerals and are the primary beneficiaries of Congo’s mineral wealth.  The U.S. seems to be resigned to settle with Kabila as a security partner on regional issues going forward as well just in case he does hold on to power in the long term.