Did The Iranians Blink In Yemen?

A nine ship Iranian convoy bound for Yemen turned around Thursday after being trailed by the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its escorts in the Arabian Sea. The convoy, consisting of seven freighters and two missile boats, was suspected of carrying weapons for the Houthi rebels and has consistently been monitored by aircraft from the Theodore Roosevelt over the past few days. None of the Iranian ships entered Yemeni waters. Currently the convoy is on its way back northeast, presumably to Iranian ports. Photos taken of the Iranian fleet show cargo freighters loaded with metal shipping containers and small boats on deck, as well as smaller cargo vessels very similar to the ones caught earlier by the US Navy transporting arms to the Houthis.

The US government has accused Iran of supplying the Houthis with arms, equipment, and funds, an accusation vehemently denied by the Iranian government. Aiding the Houthis is illegal under United Nations resolutions. The Iranians state that they have warships in the Arabian Sea in order to protect trade, and do not deny that there is a convoy in the sea despite repeated denial of aid to the Houthis. President Obama has made a statement during a television interview that the United States will act to prevent any interference with shipping through the Red and Arabian seas, a rather specific enforcement of the UN arms embargo. In the meantime, the Saudis have resumed airstrikes on Houthi positions after a two-day hiatus. The Saudis and the Hadi government-in-exile still hope for an eventual peaceful solution to the Yemen conflict.

An unnamed American official stated that the recall of the Iranian ships was a “promising sign” for peace in Yemen as well as the ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. But did Iran really blink in a staring match with the United States? Iran may consider a step down from aiding their Houthi allies a necessary trade off for ensuring that their nuclear weapons program can continue. After all, a nuclear armed Iran would be much more able to enforce hegemony over the Middle East and give further support for Houthis and other pro-Iranian groups in the long term.