The Secret Expansion in Yemen of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Yemen is currently in the midst of a civil war between the Houthi rebels, who forced internationally recognized President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia in February, and the forces loyal to Hadi. Many other countries have gotten involved, with a coalition led by Saudi Arabia supporting pro-Hadi troops and Iran supporting the Houthis.

In the confusion caused by all of the fighting, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has quietly been expanding its own holdings in Yemen. AQAP is regarded as one of the most dangerous Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist organizations; it is responsible for the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris this past January and has also been connected to several different bomb plots in the United States.

In the past few years, the Yemeni military has fought AQAP. However, the military has now split between pro-Houthi and pro-Hadi forces, and the pro-Hadi forces are too focused on fighting the Houthis to pay attention to AQAP’s movements. The Saudi coalition has also refrained from attacking AQAP, despite Saudi Arabia’s own history of cracking down on Al Qaeda, because the Sunni AQAP provides an ideological ally against the Shiite Houthis.

While the world has focused on the conflict between the Houthi rebels and the pro-Hadi forces, AQAP has been taking control of entire regions in Yemen, such as Hadramaut, where no Houthi presence exists. It has been making huge territorial gains in the southeast, took over an airport and oil terminal in Mukalla, and freed approximately 300 prisoners (including its senior commander Khaled Saeed Batafi) in April. The group has also been helping in the fight against the Houthis in provinces like Bayda to gain the support of locals. In a country that is approximately 65% Sunni and 35% Shia, AQAP is trying to present itself as a more legitimate power than the Houthis and AQAP is following the general Al Qaeda strategy of not alienating the population to help itself gain popular support.

AQAP’s actions in Yemen essentially mirror those of Jabhat al-Nusra, the Al Qaeda affiliate operating in Syria. In an interview with Al Jazeera on May 27, al-Nusra’s leader, Abu Muhammed al-Joulani, described the organization as a local group with a local cause. Al-Nusra enjoys a great deal of popular support in Syria, and AQAP is trying to portray itself in the same light – as a group of Yemeni fighters with goals of overthrowing a Shiite uprising in a predominately Sunni country.

AQAP’s current strategy in Yemen appears to be working. By helping Sunni forces fight against the Houthi rebels and by not imposing itself harshly in the areas it controls, it has succeeded in gaining territory and winning local support. However, the Saudi coalition involved in the fight in Yemen, which includes the US, must not forget that AQAP’s goals are not merely local. It is still one of Al Qaeda’s most violent and volatile affiliates, and it has a very recent history of attacking Western targets. Even while the coalition continues to battle the Houthis, it must remember to stop AQAP’s expansion as well.