Boko Haram Returning to Terrorist Tactics after Loss of Territory

This spring, media outlets reported that Boko Haram, the jihadist group terrorizing Nigeria, was being pushed out of the land it held by forces from Chad, Benin, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria. At the beginning of 2015, Boko Haram controlled 20 districts in Nigeria that, in total, became a territory the size of Belgium. By mid-March, they controlled three.

Despite this loss of land, the threat posed by Boko Haram remains significant. The group is ideologically driven by a divinely-conceived mandate to bring Islam to the world, so setbacks, such as loss of territory, will not cause the group to disappear completely. Instead, loss of ground simply requires a change in tactics. Rather than acting like a state, which provides services to its people and protects its borders, terrorist organizations without territory use more conventional tactics – bombings, gunmen, assassinations, and kidnappings.

These changes in method are evidenced by a number of recent attacks attributed to Boko Haram in Nigeria and nearby countries. Last week, two explosions in Chad killed 11 people. A few days later, approximately 150 people died in Nigeria when nearly 50 people were killed in a shooting in Monguno and almost 100 were killed in Kukuwa. The group has been trying to smuggle weapons through Chad but Chadian police forces have raided two weapons arsenals in the past eight days, seizing massive amounts of arms and information.

On July 5, a restaurant and a mosque in Jos were both targeted and more than 40 people were killed. Boko Haram is suspected to be behind the attacks. A planted bomb blew up at the Shagalinku restaurant, whereas a gunman and suicide bomber attacked the Yantaya mosque. The mosque’s imam, Sheikh Muhammad Sani Yahya Jingir, was likely the target, as he has a history of criticizing Boko Haram while preaching a doctrine of religious tolerance. In the northeast, militants believed to belong to Boko Haram burned down 32 churches and 300 homes.

This resurgence in violence is likely an effect of the group’s affiliation with the Islamic State (IS). Even as Boko Haram lost militarily early this year, it strategically pledged allegiance to IS in March. This affiliation has helped Boko Haram tremendously, adding to its media presence and recruitment efforts while also giving it millions of dollars every month in increased funding. This support has allowed Boko Haram to increase its use of violent tactics. With less territory to control, it has more money that can be used to fund terrorist attacks.

The return of Boko Haram to conventional terrorist tactics provides a small case study of the effects of pushing a terrorist group out of lands it controls. When a group that was once entrenched in an area is forcibly removed, it does not disappear. Boko Haram will follow in the footsteps of Al Shabaab, which has reemerged and become increasingly violent in Somalia after being pushed out of most of its territory. It is not going away; instead, it is changing its methods, moving from symmetric warfare and fighting on battlefields to asymmetric warfare, bombings, and guerrilla attacks. As the US and its allies move to destroy IS and its affiliates, they must be aware of the fluid nature of these organizations in order to be adequately prepared to fight them.