Islamic State Defaults to Terror in Response to Setbacks

On Sunday, March 6, 2016, The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a truck bombing on the town of Hilla, killing at least 60 and wounding another 70. The group drove a truck, laden with explosives, into the Babylon ruins checkpoint at the entrance of the city.

This attack comes just a week after IS targeted the city of Sadr, killing over 70 people. Besides the attack on Sadr, IS targeted a Iraqi security forces positons and a funeral, which was attended by several commanders of the local Shiite, Iranian-backed militia, Asaib al- Haq (AAH). AAH has been combating IS since 2011. The militia group has also been active in Syria where it has been aiding Hezbollah.

Since losing their stronghold in Ramadi, IS has seemed to increase their strikes in Iraq. In February alone it is suspected that over 670 people were killed by IS.

With IS losing some ground, they may be increasing their attacks to slow down the advance of Iraqi security forces. By having the Iraqi military focus further on civilian targets outside of IS held territory, there will be little opposition to IS in northern Iraq, which is largely governed by IS.

Just as IS has increased attacks, so has the U.S. Last week an administration official announced the U.S. army’s elite Delta Force would restart capture and kill missions of IS commanders. The day after this activity was announced the group captured a high level operative in IS.

Last year Delta Force killed ranking IS leader Abu Sayyaf, and captured his wife, Umm Sayyaf, who has been reportedly been of great intelligence value due to her knowledge of IS networks, which was exploited to field subsequent raids on IS officials.

The U.S. and its allies also conducted up to 18 strikes on IS positions yesterday in northern Iraq.

These increased attacks may hinder IS operations by killing or capturing high level commanders, but it may also be pushing IS to increase their attacks against civilian targets. Iraqi and U.S. forces have now proven they are capable of successfully targeting IS and reclaiming valuable territory. This success will drive IS to seek ways of slowing these operations at the expense of civilian lives.

Iraq is not the only place IS is losing ground, however. In Syria the group is territory on the Syria-Turkey border as well as territory along the Iraq-Syria border. To make matters worse for IS, a recent video reportedly shows dozens of former IS fighters deserting the groups for a rival faction.

IS has long been a formidable enemy, but it seems that U.S. and Iraqi forces may be moving in the right direction to take back more territory from the group. IS is losing territory and support in both Iraq and Syria, and continued strikes on strategic positions and leadership targeting may be able severely hamper IS operations. However, the more ground taken by anti-IS forces, the more IS will target soft targets in Syria and Iraq, further putting civilians in danger.