Gantz has the mandate, but Bibi holds the cards

Last night, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin formally handed the mandate to form a government to Benny Gantz and the Blue-White party.

He had no choice, since the United List (Arab and strongly anti-Zionist) said they would support a minority Gantz government, as did Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beiteinu party.

Together, those factions all add up to 61-62 seats, and because of that, President Rivlin had no choice but to hand Gantz the mandate to form a government led by the Blue-White party.

But Gantz will fail to form such a narrow government. The 61-seat number is based on the leaders of the parties committing to extend support to the Blue-White party in the Knesset vote to establish a government.  However, that does not mean the rank and file will follow.

In Gantz’ case, two people (Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Handle) in his own party have said that they will not vote for a narrow government that rests on an Arab anti-Zionist party. So too has Orli Levi-Abaksis (Labor-Gesher) said so.  Moreover, there are others in the Telem (Moshe Yaalon’s branch of the Blue-White Party), which are likely to follow Hauser and Handle, such as Orli Fruman and Andrei Kozhinov. The Blue White party ran on a promise, moreover, that it would not do so, which is one of the reasons why these party rebels feel they stand on solid ground.

This refusal to allow a government to be beholden to certain members of the Arab party is not based on a racist and general boycott of Arab parties or politicians as some will surely claim, but because the United List includes several members who support terrorism against Israel and are overtly committed to Israel’s destruction.

Some, such as Ahmad Tibi, have regularly traveled to meet with Israel’s enemies, such as Syria’s Assad, to coordinate a strategy to weaken and undermine Israel …  all the while sitting in Israel’s parliament.  As such, several of the centrist members of the Blue-White Party cannot accept a narrow government which is open to blackmail from anti-Zionist parliamentarians who work with Israel’s enemies.  The public pressure is immense in this regard; families of terror victims have taken to social media to launch personal appeals to both Gantz and Telem faction leader, Moshe “Bogie” Yaalon, saying the words of comfort they extended personally to the aggrieved families as they served as chiefs of staff or defense minister ring hollow now that they extend a hand to Arab parliamentarians who cheered and praised the terrorists who perpetrated the attacks that killed their loved ones.  So the 61 seat number in terms of actual Knesset votes suddenly becomes 58-59, or even less— namely, not enough to form a narrow government of the left, center-left.  Because of this, in the end Gantz indeed has the mandate from Rivlin to form a government, but at the same time he cannot actually form a government.  This means he will have to turn the current Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, and his Likud party to form a national unity government.

But on what terms?  Ultimately, it will be on Netanyahu’s terms.  First, because Likud is larger than Blue-White, driving the public perception that Netanyahu is the most appropriate to be the prime minister. Moreover, the underlying political dynamics this round are very different than the last three rounds and seem to favor Netanyahu. Not only did Likud gain seats (as opposed to first and second elections this year in which they lost seats after each round), but there is a broader threat to Gantz and his leadership overall. First, Blue-White is ideologically conflicted internally, but unified on the aim of ousting Netanyahu — a mission which after three rounds has not been fulfilled, and seems now to be even receding. Second, Gantz’s clumsy attempt to reach out to the anti-Zionist Arab parties — which he firmly denied he would do during the election campaign — is not a marginal promise, as the abandonment by Hauser and Handle suggests. Although the polls do not show it yet, but it could well translate into a big electoral problem in the next election.

Though the mandate has been given to Gantz, President Rivlin has strongly called for a national unity government  between Blue-White and Likud, which the other center party, that of Avigdor Lieberman, insists on as well. Earlier this week, Netanyahu offered such a government, but Gantz rejected it on Bibi’s terms, arguing that he has the means to form a government of his own and thus any national unity government would have to be on his terms.  He insisted on several major cabinet posts (including justice, education and defense) and on rotation and inclusion of all the parties — southing Netanyahu and the right (along with Hauser, Handle and Levi-Abaksis) refuse to do. Having thrown the mandate to Gantz will now expose this “threat” not as leverage, but as an empty bluff to a large extent, which is useful for Netanyahu, since its being exposed now gives him the leg up.

Overall then, although Gantz currently holds the mandate, underneath it all, Netanyahu seems to hold the cards.