Situation Report: Escalation along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon

A week ago, Israel Defense Forces struck and killed a senior Hizballah official in Damascus, Ali Kamel Mohsen, who was conducting a transfer of sensitive weapons.  Hizballah promised retaliation.  Similar promises of retaliation have been reflexive and not necessarily executed, but Israel quickly picked up on signs that indeed Hizballah will act.  The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) thus mobilized additional forces to the north and placed the ones along the border on high alert.  On Friday, it began closing the border areas to out-of-area traffic and limiting civilian movement along the border.

This morning, an Israeli unit in the Mount Dov area detected an approaching Hizballah unit. The unit was either attempting to get close enough to use anti-tank missiles against an Israeli target, or alternatively, attempting to penetrate far enough to plant explosive devices along the border road.

The IDF opened fire on the unit, forcing the Hizballah unit to retreat under cover fire from Hizballah, during which it appears an Israeli building was hit.  Within an hour, the situation was defined as controlled, but not finished. The IDF reports that there were no injuries on the Israeli side, and are trying to ascertain what exactly happened to the Hizballah unit, which may still be either dead, trapped or hiding behind the mountainous area. It is clear, however, that the Hizballah unit has been neutralized and that the Hizballah attack has been successfully frustrated.

Given the successful stymying of the attack and Hizballah’s resulting humiliation, Israel believes Hizballah will need to follow up and attempt further attacks in the coming hours or days. Therefore, the situation remains exceedingly tense with considerable potential for escalation. Despite having claimed early in the incident on its official new outlet, al-Madayin, that it had conducted a successful attack using Coronet missiles on Israeli military vehicles, Hizballah later in the day denied that there ever was an incident or exchange of fire of any type.  This denial suggests that Hizballah failed substantially enough in this attack that it cannot find a way to spin it, or crop any footage of it, into some sort of story of successful retaliation. Although the Israeli military is trying to send calming messages, the fact that Hizballah still has no retaliation for which to show only increases the chances that it will still try to act in the next few days

One sign of the ongoing tension is that both the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Deputy Prime Minister (and Defense Minister) Benny Gantz have cancelled meetings and converged on the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv for briefings and to monitor the situation.  They are expected to issue an official statement later this evening. The next few days are critical for the Israeli government to pass a budget, and the cancelling of meetings in this circumstance right now, while not unprecedented, is rare.