North Korea Unveils Possible New ICBM to Influence Post-Election U.S. Policy

On October 10, 2020, North Korea displayed what may be its newest ICBM and the largest liquid-fueled, road-mobile ICBM ever made.  If this is a real missile and not a mock-up, it could be capable of carrying a heavy warhead or multiple warheads that could strike the entire continental United States.

This military parade has implications for President Trump’s North Korea policy and U.S. relations with North Korea in 2021 regardless of who wins the presidential election.

The display of the possible new ICBM was the finale of a pre-dawn military parade in Pyongyang on October 10. According to the Washington Post, the parade displayed a range of modern military equipment that has never been seen before, from small arms to masks designed for chemical warfare, and a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

The possible new ICBM was carried on an 11-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL). It was larger than North Korea’s largest known operational ICBM, the Hwasong-15 (designated by the Pentagon as the KN-22) which was carried on nine-axle TELs in a February 2018 military parade. The Hwasong-15 (see below photo) was test launched on November 28, 2017 and is believed to have a range of 8,000 miles. The size and possible greater weight of the new missile suggests it may have greater range and capable of carrying a heavier warhead.  The Hwasong-15 also was displayed in the October 10 parade.

Screenshot of North Korean Hwasong-15 ICBMs in an October 10, 2020 parade. Screenshot from KCNA (North Korea TV) via KCNA Watch.

Although the United States and Russia have larger ICBMs in silos, North Korea almost certainly decided to make this missile road-mobile to make it harder to detect and destroy. However, since fueling of liquid-fueled missiles is time consuming and must be done just before launch, it still would be vulnerable to being destroyed on the ground before it is fired.

There are many questions about the possible new North Korean ICBM. North Korea is known to have displayed mock-ups of missiles in the past. It is unknown whether the supposed new ICBM in the parade was a mock-up.

Even if this ICBM is genuine, North Korea likely has major technical hurdles to overcome to make it operational. Although North Korea has successfully launched its Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 ICBMs at ICBM ranges, such a new and larger ballistic missile must be tested before it could be added to North Korea’s missile arsenal. These tests have had high failure rates.

Some missile experts have speculated that this possible ICBM is intended to carry multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) to overwhelm U.S. missile defenses in Alaska. I believe North Korea is years away from being able to deploy MIRVs because it reportedly has not mastered the complex technology of re-entry vehicles which allows missile warheads to survive the intense heat of reentry into the atmosphere nor has it tested MIRVs, another complex technology.

North Korea is known to have stepped up its testing of SLBMs and displayed several Pukguksong-4As, believed to be its new and most advanced SLBM, at the parade. See below screenshot. There also may be a land-based version of this missile.

Screenshot of North Korean Pukguksong-4A SLBM in an October 10, 2020 parade. Screenshot from KCNA (North Korea TV) via KCNA Watch.

IMPLICATIONS

The October 10, 2020 North Korean military parade – the first to include missiles since February 2018 – likely was intended to influence the North Korea policy of the next U.S. president.

President Trump has been widely credited for reducing tensions with North Korea through his personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.  As a result of this policy, North Korea has not conducted any long-range missile tests since November 2017.  It suspended all missile tests except for tests of short-range missiles which resumed in mid-2019. North Korea also has not conducted a nuclear test since September 2017.

The Trump administration has been criticized for not getting North Korea to agree to a comprehensive peace agreement that would denuclearize the country which Kim Jong Un agreed to in principle at the Singapore Summit with President Trump in June 2018.  Trump officials also have been criticized over evidence that North Korea continued its missile and nuclear programs even though it suspended tests of these weapons.  However, the North’s decision to display these new weapons in a parade rather than test launching them could be a result of President Trump’s personal diplomacy with Kim Jong Un.

By displaying these missiles at this time, North Korea likely was laying down a marker of its growing military might to prepare for dealing with the United States after the 2020 presidential election.

If Mr. Trump is re-elected, North Korea will press hard to get the Trump administration to weaken its “Maximum Pressure” strategy to bring about full denuclearization and to obtain sanctions relief before it agrees to a comprehensive settlement.  This will be difficult given Trump’s refusal to make concessions to Pyongyang before it agrees to denuclearize.

The missile display was probably mostly intended to influence a Biden administration if Mr. Biden wins the election. U.S. intelligence has reported that North Korea prefers a Biden win in the presidential election, likely because of the Trump administration’s tough negotiating stance. North Korea also knows how weak the Obama administration was in dealing with rogue state WMD programs and likely expects a Biden administration – which almost certainly will be staffed by former Obama officials – to be just as weak or weaker.

North Korean officials may also believe a Biden administration would be driven to negotiate a quick agreement with them to bolster its credentials and draw a contrast with the Trump administration. The recent display of advanced missiles and possible threats against the United States after the election could be efforts to get such an agreement – provided a Biden administration rewards North Korea with major concessions, a mistake made by several Republican and Democratic administrations.