A Good Week For The ‘Radical Entente’: Outlaw Nations Likely Emboldened By Ineffectual Western Responses

This was a red letter week for "international outlaws" and rogue nations bent on illegally acquiring weapons of mass destruction, the sponsorship of terrorism and other activities inimical to Western interests. Unfortunately, the Clinton Administration’s maladroit response to the perpetrators of such actions has probably only encouraged them to redouble their efforts.

Among the ominous developments to which the United States and its allies have responded incompetently — if at all — are the following:

Iran: Even as Secretary of State Warren Christopher was telling lawmakers that the Iranian government was an "international outlaw" in testimony before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations on 30 March, he was obliged to acknowledge that the Clinton Administration has been unsuccessful in blocking some $460 million in World Bank loans issued to the Rafsanjani regime over the last three weeks.

Christopher — who established a lamentable record in the Iranian portfolio during his previous service as Deputy Secretary of State under the Carter Administration — sought to assure the subcommittee, however: "Iran does not deserve the support of the World Bank. We are making that view known to our allies and friends." Translation: America’s influence has eroded to the point where Washington is unable to deny multilateral funds even to states engaged in the most profound offenses to international security.

Iraq: This week, the U.S. Mission to the United Nations released a comprehensive five-page list of Iraqi violations of the cease-fire agreements. Among the findings were:

• Saddam Hussein’s regime authorized attacks on U.N. vehicles which occurred on 15 and 20 March 1993;

 

• Baghdad has refused to provide information about more than 600 Kuwaiti prisoners seized during the invasion of Kuwait and illegally taken to Iraq;

 

• Iraq has failed to return captured U.S. Hawk missiles; and

 

• Iraq has denied a U.N. inspection team permission to examine a suspected missile research center;

Incredibly, at the same time this damning indictment was being issued, the Clinton White House was once again signalling its willingness to "depersonalize" the conflict with Saddam Hussein: His removal from power would no longer be a precondition for a restoration of normal relations between the United States and Iraq.

This was, of course, the same position trumpeted by President-elect Clinton in an exclusive New York Times interview on 13 January 1993 with Thomas Friedman — and then swiftly repudiated when it was (properly) seen as a dramatic and unwarranted U.S. concession to the Butcher of Baghdad.(1) The Center has learned that, despite Mr. Clinton’s attempt to blame Friedman for precipitating the flap by misunderstanding his statement, the President-elect had actually told the experienced reporter that he wanted to use the interview to send a signal to Saddam Hussein.

While Saddam probably got this pathetic signal the first time, he surely has got it now: The Clinton Administration is interested in suing for peace, if only Iraq will modulate its behavior with respect to the cease-fire resolutions. If Saddam will only conduct himself better for a while, the sanctions will be lifted and he can go back to business as usual later. The predictable result of such transparent weakening of U.S. resolve will inevitably be more bad behavior from Baghdad, later if not sooner.

Libya: Secretary Christopher also used the occasion of the 30 March hearings in the Senate to telegraph the Administration’s intention to garner support for additional sanctions against Libya, including a complete embargo on purchases of Libyan oil. "I think the time has come to stiffen the embargo against Libya….One of the things we want to talk about is an oil embargo."

While the Center for Security Policy has long believed that closing this gaping loophole is essential if the economic sanctions imposed last year are to have any appreciable impact, the advance notice thus given virtually assures that a whole host of new long-term contracts for Libyan oil are being drawn up now. After all, since such embargoes typically honor the "sanctity" of existing contracts, Libya and its American and other oil company customers will seize upon this arrangement substantially to weaken the practical effect of the "tightened" sanctions.

What is more, were the United States now to back away from seeking such a tightening of the existing sanctions — for example, so as to avoid a bruising fight with France which has announced that it will oppose a closing of the loophole — Qadhafi will only be emboldened further to flout the will of the international community. Such a prospect seems a distinct possibility after State Department spokesman Richard Boucher today declined to reaffirm the U.S. intention to seek a vote on this initiative irrespective of allied concerns.

North Korea: The 31 March deadline issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to North Korea — which was supposed to warn Kim Il-Sung of unspecified sanctions if he failed to allow IAEA inspectors to investigate two suspected nuclear materials storage facilities — has come and gone with barely a whisper.

Despite President Clinton’s campaign pledge to "give nuclear inspectors the authority and means to make spot inspections" and not to "wait until a host of Third World nations acquire full arsenals of First World weapons," the focus of U.S. and international discussions now seems to be the magnitude of financial, economic and political inducements to be offered to North Korea to encourage Kim Il-Sung to re-up to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and "join the family of nations." This response will do nothing to deter North Korea from pursuing its nuclear program; to the contrary, it will in all likelihood encourage others to follow suit.

Serbia: As the world looks on, United Nations relief convoys become the instruments of "ethnic cleansing" and even death for Bosnian women, children and elderly civilians desperate to flee Serbia’s continuing, successful campaign of genocide. Still, U.S. and other negotiators defer to Russia and other parties bent on delaying more effective international action. While NATO warplanes have finally been authorized by the U.N. to enforce a no-fly zone announced almost six months ago, the proximity of Serb ground forces to completing their mopping up of Muslim positions in Eastern Bosnia and Sarajevo means that this action — like so many before it — will amount to little more than a salve for guilty Western consciences.

The Center is confident that Slobodan Milosevic has been enormously encouraged by these newest displays of Moscow’s support and Western timidity. The result will, as always, be more gratuitous death and destruction wrought upon innocent civilians who have the misfortune of being in the way of a Greater Serbia.

The Bottom Line

Hurling invectives at terrorists and despots may deceive the American public into believing that the Clinton Administration is dealing effectively with "international outlaws." Unless backed with the credible threat of military action — and, where necessary, its utilization — however, such empty rhetoric will do nothing to check these dangerous forces. If anything, evidence of American impotence will stimulate intensified anti-Western activity.

This is particularly true insofar as these pariah nations are increasing their inter-communications as well as coordination in areas such as weapons procurement, terrorist activities and embargo circumvention. As a result, the "ripple effect" of U.S. non-performance on ultimatums, deadlines and continued blatant violations of international law by the members of this "radical entente"(2) will inevitably produce more severe and more dangerous consequences for Western interests in the future.

1. See the Center’s Decision Brief "Say It Ain’t So: Clinton’s Pledge to Restore Moral Compass in Foreign Policy Abandoned Before the Inauguration?" (No. 93-D 07).

2. For more on the "radical entente" phenomenon, see the attached column by Center director, Frank J. Gaffney, Jr., published in the Washington Times on 23 March 1993.