Caspian Watch #13: Strategically Minded Jewish-American Groups May Help Effect Needed U.S. Regional Policy Shift

(Washington, D.C.): In one of the most promising politico-foreign policy developments in
recent
years, six leading Jewish-American organizations have joined forces in an effort to bring about a
more balanced and strategically sound U.S. posture vis a vis two nations in the Caspian region —
Azerbaijan and Armenia. With the formidable political muscle of B’nai Brith, the
American
Jewish Committee, the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations,
the Anti-Defamation League, the National Conference on Soviet Jewry and the American
Jewish Congress, there appears to be a distinct possibility that, at long last, a
legislated and
highly counter-productive tilt toward Armenia at the expense of full, normalized U.S.
relations with Azerbaijan may finally come to an end.

The significance of the emergence of a well-connected interest group that rivals — if not
substantially exceeds — the clout of the Armenian-American lobby is hard to overstate. It
may
mean that, for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, there is a chance of forging a
new paradigm in the Transcaucasus and Middle East: a strategic partnership between the United
States, Israel and the two, pro-Western secular Muslim governments in these regions — Turkey
and Azerbaijan.

The Washington Post Gets It Right

This immensely promising prospect was trumpeted in a lengthy article that appeared in
yesterday’s Washington Post. Under the headline, “Jewish-Armenian Split Spreads on
the Hill:
Strategic Issues Put Onetime Lobbying Allies at Odds,” the Post reports that:

“In one of the more unusual realignments among foreign policy lobbies working
Capitol Hill, six Jewish American groups decided last summer to take on the influential
Armenian Assembly of America to clear Azerbaijan’s name in Congress and end
sanctions imposed by Congress in 1992 at the urging of Armenian-Americans.
Spokesmen for the Jewish-American groups say they are only upholding the
strategic interests of Israel, which seeks to forge friendships and alliances with
secular Muslim countries bordering its two principal enemies Iran and Iraq.“
(Emphasis added.)

The reporters, David Ottaway and Daniel
Morgan, go on to cite an ironic twist: At a
time when Israel is “busy bonding with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Christian Armenia has
forged
an even more unusual alliance with Islamic fundamentalist Iran. For Israel — and the
U.S. —
Iran is a major security threat; for Armenia it is a friendly neighbor and major trading partner.”
(Emphasis added.)

An Expanded ‘Phantom Alliance’?

On 4 February, New York Times columnist William Safire wrote a riveting article
entitled “The
Phantom Alliance.” In it, this preeminent pundit describes the emerging three-way relationship
between Turkey, Israel and the United States — an “untreatied association [that] is good for the
three democracies” compelled to contend with what he calls the “strange-bedfellowing” that may
be underway between “Iran, Iraq, Syria and its captive, Lebanon, and the emerging Palestinian
state.” Regarding this “Phantom Alliance,” Mr. Safire notes:

“Turkey, Israel and the United States firmly deny its existence. The Turks assure
fellow Muslim nations its new military and economic ties to the Israelis don’t threaten
them. The Americans say the U.S. tilt toward Turkey should be of no concern to Arab
monarchs. The Israelis say: Alliance? What alliance? No one of the three is
committed to go to war if another is attacked.”

If Azerbaijan can be incorporated into this informal — yet strategically pivotal —
partnership
that has emerged over the past year or so between Israel, Turkey and the United States, the
stabilizing effect would extend into the Caspian Basin — a region of potentially immense oil
deposits ¹ encircled by latently, if not blatantly,
anti-Western regimes. Of particular concern is
Russia under the leadership of the career KGB operative, Yevgeny Primakov. Russia’s ongoing
efforts to undermine the governments of Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and neighboring
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze have included attempted assassinations and other forms
of violence. ²

The impetus behind the Kremlin’s aggressive behavior is not hard to divine: Moscow fears
the
economic consequences of losing its traditional stranglehold on the Caspian, especially in light of
Russia’s projected national budget revenues of just $21 billion for 1999. As Senator
Sam
Brownback (R-KS) related in a 10 February 1998 speech on the Senate floor: “Russia has long
raged and conspired to thwart Caspian energy from flowing any direction but north through
Russia. Most parts of Russia’s political elite still view Caspian wealth as their own.”

The Bottom Line

U.S. interests clearly lie with promoting and expanding “the Phantom Alliance” so as to
provide
as robust as possible a pro-Western counterweight to the Russian, Iranian, Armenian and other
agendas. The efforts being made by the six Jewish-American organizations and other like-minded
groups to repeal U.S. legislation that is highly discriminatory against Azerbaijan — specifically
Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act of 1992 — are to be applauded and encouraged. Such a
step can only help improve the prospects for democratic and free market reform in Azerbaijan and
for stability in the wider and increasingly vital Caspian region.

¹ Today’s New York Times reports that a Caspian Sea
field known as Kashagan, forty miles off
the coast of Kazakhstan, may be “among the world’s largest pools of oil.” If the results of “a
private $300 million seismic survey” pan out, “the Caspian oil traffic would justify a $4 billion
pipeline that the White House seeking to support the independence of post-Soviet Central Asian
republics from Russian and Iran, has urged oil companies to build to the Mediterranean Sea” ( i.e.,
a route originating in Baku and running through Georgia and Turkey to the Turkish
Mediterranean port of Ceyhan). For an excellent overview of the case for the Ceyhan pipeline,
see Paige B. Sullivan’s op.ed. entitled “Pipeline to Ceyhan” in the 5 January 1999 editions of the
Washington Post.

²See Caspian Watch # 9: Emboldened By Iraq
‘Victory,’ Russia Intensifies Effort to
Undermine Azerbaijan (No. 97-D 180, 26
November 1997).