Excerpts from a Center for Security Policy White Paper entitled “Economic Security and Global Defense” by Roger W. Robinson, Jr. 25 November 1992

Fact Vs. Fiction In Contemporary Security Policy

“The Soviet Threat Is No More”

Probably the most popular — and insidious — argument now being used by those
seeking to strip away tens of billions of dollars from the defense budge in favor of domestic
programs is that the menacing Soviet threat that underpinned the Cold War has all but
disappeared. This assessment, alas, is not only premature, but it also fails to take into account
a number of disturbing new developments in Russia, including:

• The gradual suffocation of genuine democratic and free market transformation already
  underway at the hands of ascendent nationalist and communist forces (e.g., the National
  Salvation Front, Civic Union and the People’s Party of Free Russia);
• The rising influence — and defiance — of a non-reformist Russian Parliament under
  Speaker Ruslan Khasbulatov, augmented by paramilitary forces under his control;
• The hard currency earnings and employment imperatives that are driving massive arms
  sales — including components for weapons of mass destruction — to several unsavory
  nations (e.g., Iran, China) at “fire sale” prices;
• Yeltsin’s reneging on his pledge to withdraw troops from the Baltics within an agreed
  timetable and threats to interrupt natural gas deliveries to these fledgling nations if
  Russian minority rights are not “protected”;
• Russia’s continued robust levels of military production, espionage and technology theft
  against the West;
• Moscow’s just-concluded trade agreement with Fidel Castro which provides for the on-going operation of an immense signals intelligence collection station at Lourdes, Cuba
  reportedly manned by some 2,000 Russia military “advisors.” This agreement also calls
  for Russian supplies of weapons components for Cuba and the completion of the fatally-flawed Cienfuegos nuclear power program, in part with Russian supplier credits;
• The imminent economic chaos in the months ahead — including possible hyperinflation —
  which would further fuel a popular revolt against democratic change;
• The breakdown in Moscow’s ability to service some $80 billion in former Soviet debt to
  the West including some $5 billion in U.S. taxpayer-guaranteed loans for agricultural
  purchases;
• An increasing unwillingness to decentralize and privatize key energy production facilities, which is
  at least partially responsible for recent interruptions in energy supplies to Ukraine and Eastern
  Europe, as well as Western Europe. This ominous development could translate ultimately into the
  Russian energy sector remaining a multibillion-dollar annual revenue stream for the preservation of
  the military-industrial complex;
• The continued targeting of thousands of Russian ICBMs at American military installations, industrial
  hubs and population centers.

In short, with or without the removal of Boris Yeltsin from power, the future course of opponents
of reform in Russia seems clear: Hard-line elements masquerading as “centrist” reformers — many of
whom claim membership in the so-called Civic Union party — are ascendant and seek to coopt, if not
displace, the present leadership. Only carefully-crafted and quickly implemented Western policies —
combining both strong incentives and disincentives — can now offer any hope of halting Russia’s slide
toward authoritarianism in the guise of a “slower reform” government.