Memo to P.M. Koizumi: Time to Reign in Foreign Minister Tanaka, Reorder and Upgrade U.S.-Japan Security Ties

(Washington, D.C.): On Monday, 18 June, Japan’s new and controversial Foreign Minister, Makiko Tanaka, met with Secretary of State Colin Powell in Washington D.C. Afterwards, Ms. Tanaka grudgingly conceded that she appreciates “that the U.S. position [on missile defense] is to consult with interested states such as Russia and China” and expressed her understanding for the need for further research. Tokyo’s emissary failed, however, to allay widespread U.S. concerns about her previously stated skepticism toward — if not her outright opposition to — the Bush Administration’s position on ballistic missile defense and, as Tuesday’s Washington Times gently put it, her “undue sympathy for China.”

Foreign Minister Tanaka also met separately on Monday with President Bush’s National Security Advisor, Condoleezza Rice, and Mr. Powell’s deputy, Richard Armitage. (The latter’s participation was notable since Mr. Armitage was reportedly snubbed by Ms. Tanaka during his visit to Tokyo last month for the purpose of consulting with Japan’s leaders on U.S. missile defense plans.)

What’s Wrong With This Picture?

Particularly distressing were the Foreign Minister’s widely reported 25 May remarks to her Italian counterpart. She is said to have told him that the U.S. “says there’s a missile threat, but is missile defense necessary? Japan and Europe must tell the U.S., don’t do too much.” She reportedly added that, “Perhaps the U.S. is pushing this idea of missile defense plan to confront the Chinese economic and military threat. However, one has to counter with wisdom, not with military power.”

Those concerns could only have been intensified during her visit to Washington as Ms. Tanaka signaled ominously her desire to see changes in U.S.-Japanese security ties. Following her meeting with Secretary Powell, she observed, “The [bilateral] security arrangements have already lasted 50 years and we would like to look at its benefits and burdens carefully as we may be at a milestone in the Japan-U.S. security arrangement.” The umistakably unfriendly import of this remark prompted Gen. Powell to declare: “You should always remember that the best friend of Japan is the United States.”

Needed: A Reprioritizing and Upgrading of Bilateral Security Ties

The good news is that Ms. Tanaka’s boss, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, is scheduled to make his own state visit to Washington shortly. It behooves the Japanese leader not only to make clear where he personally stands with respect to his country’s security ties to the United States. He also needs to clarify his government’s stance with respect to several initiatives of growing importance to the bilateral relationship and the common defense interests of both Japan and America. By taking the following steps to accord selected, concrete actions the high priority they deserve, Mr. Koizumi can demonstrate that his Foreign Minister does not speak either for him, for his government or for the Japanese people on matters bearing on the enhancement of Japan’s military capabilities and its security cooperation with the United States:

Ballistic Missile Defense

In the face of the growing threat of ballistic missile attack emanating from East Asia against Japan and/or the United States, missile defense should be at the very top of the bilateral security agenda. While a cooperative U.S.-Japan research program in this area has been launched, the government of Japan has yet to announce that the political decision has been taken to deploy anti-missile systems. In the absence of such a decision, bilateral cooperation has been unhelpfully circumscribed. Now that the United States government has taken that decision first, in the form of legislation enacted in 1999 and more recently with the election of a President committed to defending America and her forces and allies overseas against this threat Japan should follow suit at once.

To its credit, Japan has committed to the purchase of two more Aegis destroyers in the current Mid-Term Defense Plan with one each to be procured in 2002 and 2003. This would bring to six the number of Aegis platforms in Japan’s inventory, giving it a considerable infrastructure to provide for an early and potentially highly effective anti-missile defense of the Home Islands by equipping these ships with both the lower-tier Standard Missile (SM) 2 Block IVA missile and upper-tier SM3 Block II missile as they become available. Unlike the first four ships, though, the next two AEGIS destroyers will reportedly have the software in place to deploy (without retrofitting) these Standard Missiles required for anti-missile purposes.

Prime Minister Koizumi should use the occasion of his first meeting with President Bush to announce a “go” decision by Japan to join the United States in acquiring a missile defense system. In order to ensure that this program receives the political priority and resources it will need, he and Mr. Bush should direct that henceforth bilateral cooperation on this joint program will be overseen at the ministerial levels in both governments.

Diet Resolution on Collective Defense

In the event of an Asian conflict today, Japanese self-defense forces would not be permitted to come to the aid of, for example, a U.S. ship under attack. The reverse would be permitted, however — and expected. This absurd and potentially costly (both in terms of lost lives and needless strains between allies) asymmetrical arrangement must be redressed. Fortunately, Prime Minister Koizumi reportedly plans to catalyze a reinterpretation of “collective defense” so as to enable Japanese defense forces to assist the United States in the defending Japan. He has also stated that Article 9 of the Japanese constitution should be changed to reflect the fact that Japan actually has an army and a navy.

Aerial Refueling Tanker/Transports

Japan’s acquisition of critically-needed aerial refueling tanker/transport aircraft was delayed by a full year due to political compromises attendant to the formation of former Prime Minister Mori’s coalition government. There should be no further slippage. These aircraft represent a potentially enormous “force multiplier” for American forces in East Asia if they interoperable with U.S. assets and can be employed to keep our AWACS and fighter aircraft on-station considerably longer.

The Future of U.S. Military Bases on Okinawa

The Bush Administration’s ill-advised decision to end military training on the island of Vieques has had the predictable effect of intensifying pressure on the United States to end — or at least to relocate — American forces stationed on the Japanese island of Okinawa. There is, in addition, a pernicious effort afoot to afford the U.S. only a ten-year lease for any new facilities it might secure. The Japanese and American governments must work together to avoid creating conditions that would in a decade, if not sooner, eliminate bases and training areas critical to America’s forward deployment in the Western Pacific — and the defense commitments made possible by such deployment.

Maritime Patrol Aircraft

An indigenously manufactured Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) is reportedly the Japanese navy’s number one funding priority. The MPA is intended to replace existing and aging P-3C surveillance aircraft. It is critical, however, that the MPA be fully interoperable with existing U.S. maritime patrol aircraft, as well as the new U.S. Navy multi-mission maritime aircraft under development, but not yet funded. In addition, Prime Minister Koizumi should ensure the maximum possible degree of cooperation between Japanese contractors responsible for avionics- and systems integration-related activities and their American counterparts.

The Bottom Line

Even before the Japanese Prime Minister arrives in Washington and, hopefully, makes progress on the foregoing agenda, another senior representative of his government will be holding meetings here that can go some way toward reversing the damage apparently being done to the bilateral relationship by Foreign Minister Tanaka.

Tomorrow, Japan Defense Agency Minister Gen Nakatani is scheduled to hold meetings at the Department of Defense with the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO). Ideally, these sessions will set the stage for Prime Minister Koizumi and President Bush to unveil on 30 June their shared commitment to begin deploying in the near future sea-based missile defenses based upon their two navies’ Aegis infrastructures.