Soviet Crackdown Watch (Part 6): It Begins…Repression With a ‘Human Face’?

(Washington, D.C.): After
weeks of documenting evidence that the
central authorities were preparing a
crackdown in the Soviet Union, the Center
for Security Policy today notes with
profound regret that the crackdown
has now begun
.
Henceforth,
the Center will be monitoring the
dimensions and character of Soviet
repression against the genuinely
pro-democratic forces inside the USSR.

Evidence of the crackdown now underway
includes the following:

  • On 7 January 1991, Defense
    Minister Yazov ordered tens of
    thousands of Soviet paratroopers
    into Lithuania, Latvia, and
    Estonia to “round up draft
    dodgers.” The Lithuanian
    Borders Defense Department
    reported two columns of tanks had
    crossed into Lithuania. The order
    to enforce conscription was also
    delivered to Georgia, the
    Ukraine, Albania, and Moldavia.
  • Colonel General Fyodor Kuzmin,
    Commander of the Baltic Military
    District, informed the three
    Baltic presidents by phone of the
    order and warned that the
    round-up would begin on 13
    January
    . In fact, Soviet
    troops have already begun
    apprehending persons according to
    a Radio Riga report on 10
    January.

  • Lithuanian President Landsbergis
    called the action “a huge
    provocation” in a New
    York Times
    interview on 7
    January.

  • On 7 January, Polish officials
    prevented a Soviet military train
    carrying 200 troops, 9 tanks and
    other military equipment bound
    for the Ukraine from exiting
    Polish territory.
  • On 8 January, the first U.S.
    official reaction was registered
    in a statement issued at the
    White House and the State
    Department. It indicated that the
    United States was “especially
    concerned”
    over
    actions by the Gorbachev regime
    which were characterized as
    “provocative and
    counterproductive.” The
    White House press secretary urged
    the Kremlin “to cease
    attempts at intimidation and turn
    back to negotiations” in
    dealing with the republics. In
    Moscow, U.S. Ambassador Matlock
    contacted Foreign Minister Eduard
    Shevardnadze about the reports
    and in Washington, Deputy
    Secretary of State Larry
    Eagleberger summoned Soviet
    Ambassador Bessmertnykh.
  • On the same day, however,
    the Administration announced an
    allocation of $900 million of the
    $1 billion in agricultural credit
    guarantees extended to Moscow
    center on 12 December 1990. In
    addition, $300 million in U.S.
    Export-Import Bank insurance and
    credit guarantees are expected to
    be drawn down by American
    companies over the next few
    weeks.
  • As such agricultural credit
    subsidies begin to flow to the
    Soviet Union, it is noteworthy
    that reports reaching the Center
    for Security Policy indicate that
    Moscow has threatened
    republics that U.S. grain would
    be withheld from areas not
    cooperating with the Kremlin
    .

  • On 9 January, TASS denounced
    Marlin Fitzwater’s statements as
    “a manifestation of
    old-style thinking, which members
    of the world community have
    already begun moving away
    from.”
  • When asked on 9 January whether
    any further communications or
    warnings had been issued to the
    Soviet Union, White House
    spokesman Marlin Fitzwater
    replied, “We don’t
    have anything to add at this
    point. We continue to monitor the
    situation.”

  • In an interview on 9 January with
    the Christian Science Monitor,
    Foreign Minister Eduard
    Shevardnadze said that he did not
    consider the deployments in the
    Baltic states as evidence of the
    dictatorship he was warning of in
    his resignation speech.

    “I can’t say this is the
    display of some kind of
    dictatorship. This is a simple
    desire to introduce order,
    because it’s impossible to live
    under conditions of chaos and
    anarchy. It’s chaos and anarchy
    that can lead to
    dictatorship.”
  • Such a statement casts
    substantial doubt on hopeful
    Western predictions that
    Shevardnadze might emerge in the
    future as a champion of the
    reformist republics. Moreover, coming
    as it does against the backdrop
    of reports that he may remain in
    the Gorbachev cabinet, this
    astonishing pronouncement raises
    anew fears that Shevardnadze
    might revert to form and serve as
    an instrument of the repressive
    central authorities.

  • On 10 January, President
    Gorbachev declared that the
    situation in Lithuania had
    reached “a dead end”
    and threatened to impose direct
    presidential rule from the
    Kremlin. He accused Lithuanian
    leaders of “gross
    violations” of the Soviet
    constitution and of attempting
    “to restore a bourgeois
    regime…under slogans of
    democracy.”
  • On 10 January, the Estonian
    Popular Front called on citizens
    to “make ready for
    siege-like conditions.”
  • After weeks of postponing the
    broadcast of a Shevardnadze
    interview — conducted
    immediately following and
    focusing on his resignation — by
    the popular TV program, Vzglyad,
    the Deputy Chairman of the USSR
    State Committee for Radio and
    Television has banned
    this popular television program
    (estimated to have an audience of
    up to 100 million Soviets) from
    the airwaves entirely and
    indefinitely
    .
  • Today, Soviet troops occupied
    several official buildings,
    including the National Defense
    Department and the National Press
    Building in Vilnius. Military
    units sprayed the Press Building
    with machine gun fire, reportedly
    seriously wounding a number of
    people inside.
    When
    surrounded by civilians, Soviet
    tanks fired deafening blank
    rounds to intimidate the crowds.
    According to the Deputy Chairman
    of the Lithuanian Supreme
    Council, at least one foreign
    correspondent filming Soviet
    tanks on Putnios Street was
    beaten up.
  • In its report on the Baltics,
    London’s Financial Times
    concluded today that, “The
    question now is just how
    and when the Soviet
    leader will attempt to enforce
    his authority — and the military
    conscription — with the open use
    of force.” (Emphasis added.)
  • In a striking indication
    of Gorbachev’s confidence that he
    can defuse any possible U.S.
    sanctions in response to his
    crackdown by highlighting the
    USSR’s “cooperative”
    role in the Persian Gulf crisis,
    the Soviet leader called
    President Bush to talk about next
    steps towards Iraq.
  • Reporting to the press on this
    phone conversation, President
    Bush went out of his way to
    praise Gorbachev yet again for
    his stand on the Gulf. Subsequent
    to a discussion of the Gulf
    crisis — and clearly as a
    subordinate issue — Bush raised
    the Baltic issue with Gorbachev.
    He told reporters:

  • “The United States feels that the
    use of force, particularly in the Baltics
    would be counterproductive. There was
    some discussion of the internal affairs
    in the Soviet Union when I talked to Mr.
    Gorbachev. He knows of my position that
    we view the Baltics differently….They
    have a very different standing than other
    republics….I am very hopeful that they
    can find a way to resolve these extraordinarily
    complex
    problems without
    resorting to force.”

  • Interestingly, Soviet Foreign
    Ministry spokesman Vitaly Churkin
    chose a similar formulation in
    commenting on the domestic Soviet
    situation today. He said:
    “Without observance of law
    and without discipline, I don’t
    see how it might be possible to
    continue with the immensely
    complex
    and difficult
    reform program and program of
    perestroika in our country.”
  • Interfax, the only
    non-state-controlled news service
    in the Soviet Union was
    jettisoned from its offices in
    Moscow today.
  • Importantly, the timing
    of Gorbachev’s crackdown in the
    Baltics — coming at the moment
    when all eyes are focused on the
    Persian Gulf and the United
    States hopes for a benign Soviet
    attitude — is eerily reminiscent
    of the Soviet 1956 invasion of
    Hungary at the height of the Suez
    crisis.

The Bush Administration was
legitimately criticized for sending mixed
signals — if not a green light
— to Saddam Hussein prior to his
invasion of Kuwait. It seems now to be in
danger of encouraging Mikhail Gorbachev
to further repression by its minimalist
and largely perfunctory reaction to his
crackdown to date. The Center for
Security Policy believes that President
Bush’s willingness to extend $1.3 billion
in U.S. taxpayer credit guarantees to
Gorbachev and the ruling Communist Party
speaks far louder than the mild rebukes
and “serious concern” expressed
by the White House
.

The Center called on the
Administration and the Congress to: halt
immediately the disbursement of any
Commodity Credit Corporation grain loan
guarantees; freeze U.S. Eximbank
insurance coverage and credit guarantees;
shelve all U.S. technical assistance to
the strategic Soviet energy sector; and
suspend any forward movement on Soviet
associate membership status in the
International Monetary Fund and the World
Bank. It goes without saying that
new concessions under active
consideration — notably the removal of
Soviet borrowing restrictions at the
European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development and technology transfer
liberalizations — be suspended
indefinitely.

Such firm U.S. actions — not mere
words — will be required if the
escalating spiral of violence and
repression by Moscow central authorities
against innocent civilians is to be
reversed. To do otherwise will only lead
down the same road of dismal policy
miscalculation and ensuing fiascoes
evident in China and Iraq.

Center for Security Policy

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