TOUR D’HORIZON: CASEY INSTITUTE’S ROBINSON EXPLORES FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

(Washington, D.C.): On 25 April 1996, Roger W.
Robinson, Jr., who holds the Casey Institute’s William
J. Casey Chair, briefed an audience of Wall Street fund managers,
bankers, investment house principals and financial reporters on
the probable repercussions of key international trends. The event
occurred at the Union Club in New York under the auspices of the
Committee for Monetary Research and Education (CMRE).

Mr. Robinson brought to the discussion of “The State of
The Globe — Markets, Political Pressures, Risk and Rewards”
rich experience in the private and public sectors, having served
as the Chase Manhattan Bank’s Vice President for the Soviet
Union, Eastern Europe and Yugoslavia and as the Senior Director
for International Economic Affairs at the Reagan National
Security Council. The other distinguished participants were: the
evening’s chairman, J. William Middendorf —
who, in addition to being an accomplished financier and senior
government official, has long served on the Center for Security
Policy’s Board of Advisors; James Grant (Grant’s
Interest Rate Observer); Robert Gilmore
(American Institute for Economic Research); and Walker
Todd (an economic consultant and former member of the
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank).

There was a general consensus among these participants that
the nexus between the traditional operation of global markets and
existing and emerging geopolitical
develop-ments/challenges is rapidly becoming more pronounced.
There is, moreover, an increasing prospect of market distortion
and turmoil. This nexus, as well as its implications for the
Nation’s interests and security, are the principal focus of the
Casey Institute’s work-program.

Roger Robinson’s contribution to the discussion ( href=”index.jsp?section=papers&code=96-R_42at1″>four pages of excerpts of which are
attached) offered a valuable geopolitical backdrop against
which to gauge the currency and equities markets and to evaluate
the prospects for international trade, financial, energy and
technology flows. Before offering insights about developments in
the Middle East, Russia, Asia and Europe, Mr. Robinson noted:

“The traditional firewall between breaking
geopolitical developments and the markets will be breached
with increasing frequency and violence in the period ahead.
Accordingly, normal commercial and economic ‘due diligence’
concerning international projects, transactions and trading
activities will, in many cases, no longer be adequate to
ensure the level of investor and/or lender confidence and
security deemed necessary.”