Sudan will keep long term ties with Tehran after Yemen conflict

Iranian confidence in the Middle East is on the up swing.  Many outlets will point out this has pushed the Iran-Sudan relationship past the point of no return as Sudan has been left little choice to join the Saudi’s Arab coalition ‘Storm’ to take on al-Houthi rebels in Yemen.  It is important to keep in mind that the events of the day do not necessarily signal a ‘cooling’ or a ‘big shift’ in the Khartoum-Tehran secret love affair.

The relationship between the Sudan and Iran is a long-term relationship.  Most importantly, it is one of the most strategically valuable relationships to Khartoum in the minds of the Sudanese regime.  This context should filter any analysis one reads about the impact of Sudan’s role in the Saudi’s Storm of Resolve coalition to counter the Houthi overthrow of Yemen.

In the past, Sudan and Iran have shared a vital strategic alliance that revolved around military assistance to the Sudanese government. This alliance flourished, until the recent developments where the Sudanese government rejected Iranian air defense systems. This in reality is just a temporary strategy in which Sudan will play both side to their benefit.

In exchange for the perception that the Sudanese are “cooling” their relationship with Iran, Saudi Arabia has pledged roughly $13 billion in investments into the Sudanese agricultural industry. Additionally, Sudan has agreed to send ground troops and aircrafts to assist the coalition led airstrikes against the Iranian-backed al-Houthi rebels.

However much the western world hopes this shows a turning tide in Sudanese affairs, this is unlikely. It has been well documented how Sudan has served as the transiting point for weapons bound to various terror organizations. Additionally, the lure of weapons shipments from the Islamic Republic of Iran will be too tempting to turn down.

While the West sees this cooperation between the Sudan and Saudi Arabia as a step forward in their relations, the reality is that Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir will eventually return to dealing with the Iranian regime at his earliest convenience.