Tikrit Retaken, But Islamic State’s Not Out

As of yesterday, March 31^st, Iraqi government forces have retaken the Salaheddin provincial government headquarters in Tikrit from Islamic State fighters. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that Popular Mobilization units, heavily dominated by Iranian-backed Shia militias, took part in the fighting, and the United States supplied air support during the operation, targeting Islamic State bases and shelters around the city. The move was not without controversy, as the Shia militias were angered with the presence of American support during the battle. Regardless, the airstrikes were pivotal in allowing Iraqi troops and their allies to proceed through and recapture Tikrit. Prime Minister al-Abadi stated that the same tactics would be employed in other areas held by Islamic State. With Tikrit retaken, the road to Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city and currently held by the Islamic State, is now open. US sources say that around 25,000 Iraqi troops are planned to retake Mosul this spring.

However, multiple reports claim that there are still Islamic State fighters present and active in Tikrit, possibly up to several hundreds. A large number of IEDs still are active in the city, and disarming them all will take no small amount of time. The Iraqi government also is concerned about the behavior of the Shia militias enlisted to help retake the city. As Tikrit is primarily Sunni Muslim, the risk of the Shia militias engaging in ethnic cleansing is quite high, especially considering the casualties suffered in order to take control of the city. During a visit to Baghdad Monday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon stated that the Iraqi government had a responsibility to maintain control of any militias fighting for their cause. To his credit, Prime Minister al-Abadi has said:

“The success of the Tikrit experiment will be repeated in other areas because of the results it has achieved on the battlefield, on a humanitarian level, protecting civilians as much as possible, in addition to the low casualties amongst our security forces.”

Substantial reports of reprisals against the Sunni population could easily sabotage the offensive on Mosul if Sunni locals view Islamic State as the only effective protection against the Shia militias.