Instability in Burundi Tells of Larger Trend in Africa

Ten years after emerging from a civil war, there are noteworthy signs of instability in the east-African state of Burundi as Burundian police fired tear gas and water cannons at protesters on Friday. Hundreds of people gathered to protest President Pierre Nkurunziza, who came to office in 2005, possibly running for a third term in office.

The country’s constitution and the 2005 peace deal that ended the civil war both limit the president’s tenure to ten years. Nkurunziza’s supporters argue his first term does not count towards the ten-year total because he was picked to rule rather than elected, but opponents assert that more time in office would violate the constitution.

Beyond these protests, political tensions have caused over 5,800 Burundian refugees to cross into neighboring Rwanda because of fears over pre-election fighting. One U.N. rights official said a failure to have free and fair elections could result in violence, a point echoed by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, who is worried about the country’s political climate.

Political tension leading to violence is unfortunately all too common in African states, evidenced by protests last year in Burkina Faso, a country in West Africa. President Blaise Compaore had led Burkina Faso for 27 years when his national assembly sought a proposal to alter the two-term limit to allow Compaore to seek reelection in 2015. Naturally, this has led to significant opposition and the legitimate fear of violence. Similar dynamics have occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo, among other African states.

The United States has a vested interest in a stable, peaceful, and prosperous Africa. Having reliable trading partners with vast amounts of natural resources benefits all sides, and political upheaval threatens such a relationship. Furthermore, countries like China take advantage of these markets without sufficient U.S. engagement.

In addition to electoral issues, another problem in Africa is al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-allied Islamist terror group based in Somalia. This is becoming a graver threat to Burundi, which will only add to its instability.

Burundi is a member of AMISOM, the African Union’s mission in Somalia. AMISOM is meant to coordinate with Somali authorities to provide security and humanitarian assistance, especially to counter the threat posed by al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab has targeted Kenya for being involved in Somali affairs and is moving into Tanzania as well. Such trends indicate that Burundi may become a target for al-Shabaab in the near future.

The U.S. State Department issued a travel advisory in 2014 to its citizens warning not to travel there for fear of al-Shabaab attacks. The State Department also told the U.S. Embassy there to be cautious in crowded places, indicating that the U.S. government is taking the al-Shabaab threat in Burundi seriously.

Political tension across Africa and the spread of terrorism from al-Shabaab are troubling developments that threaten to throw a too-often troubled continent into further chaos. These issues must be watched going forward, and the U.S. has an interest in helping ensure the situation in Africa does not worsen.