Al-Shabaab continues to prosecute asymmetrical campaign against African Union

Approximately two months after its attack on an AMISOM base in southern Somalia, in which it claimed the killing of up to 50 Ugandan soldiers, al-Shabaab has released a video containing footage of the raid as well as an Ugandan hostage.  While the AMISOM troops have managed to retake cities held by al-Shabaab, causing it to retreat to the countryside, attacks and bombings continue unabated, including the slaying of Somalian MP Muhammad Ahmed this past Friday.

A myriad of problems are hampering AMISOM’s mission to defeat the jihadists, chief among them being rampant corruption and low morale.  Ugandan Chief of Defense Forces (CDF) General Edward Katumba Wamala warned troops deploying to Somalia that there will be “tough consequences” for soldiers and officers implicated in corruption, with court martials already underway for offenses ranging from selling ammunition to food rations.  On the tactical side, the six-nation force does not have a unified command.  Instead, each member nations’ forces report to its commanding officer, in effect dividing its numerical superiority.  This has been exploited by al-Shabaab, as the video proves.

The assault on the base in Janale was organized and executed in standard jihadi fashion: a suicide bomber breached the gate, after which the terrorists moved inside the perimeter with RPG’s and light rounds.  Footage and stills from the video show Ugandan casualties and captured ordinance.  Although Ugandan forces retook the base, the propaganda value and blow to morale was already accomplished.

This attack follows a pattern established since the summer: attacks on any attempt to establish functioning government institutions along with fighting conventional military forces applying asymmetric warfare methods.  After its spectacular atrocity at the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, which garnered global media coverage, al-Shabaab has scaled back and focused on Somalia, yet it retains its networks in Kenya and Eastern Africa.

With reports of a faction within al-Shabaab breaking with al-Qaeda and pledging loyalty to the Islamic State, attacks will only increase.  AMISOM must change its tactic of holding ground, which makes them easy targets for jihadi attacks.  Ground troops backed by air support are only part of the strategy, as al-Shabaab networks that are solidly established throughout the horn of Africa and may be seeking to expand to Yemen and beyond require targeted intelligence to uncover them.