Tunisia Feeling Pressure from Increased IS Presence

Earlier today, March 7, 2016, Islamic State (IS) followers attacked Tunisian soldiers and police officers in the town of Ben Guerdan, near the Tunisia-Libyan border. The Tunisian government reported that up to 50 people were killed in the raid.

The deteriorating conditions in North Africa have allowed for IS to establish a strong presence in the region. IS has been able to make its way into Egypt and Libya, and taken advantage of a large jihadist recruiting pool from Tunisia. It is believed that over 3,000 Tunisians have gone to fight for IS in Iraq and Syria, making Tunisia the largest contributor in the region. Just recently, the U.S. was able to kill a Tunisian operative in Sabratha, Libya who was training recruits to fight for IS.

Tunisia has been the one Arab Spring country that has been touted as a success, yet thousands have left its borders to fight for IS. Groups like Ansar al-Sharia were able to infiltrate the country and convert Tunisians to join the jihad after the Arab Spring. This jihadist sentiment has continued to plague the country as many have left to fight in the name of Islam. One young Tunisian stated “The Islamic State is a true caliphate, a system that is fair and just, where you don’t have to follow somebody’s orders because he is rich or powerful.”

While ideology is likely the primary motive for Tunisians joining the jihad, there are other factors that may be pushing those unsure of what to do towards IS and other groups. Tunisia currently has a prison system that is over 130% capacity. This leaves inmates in close proximity with convicted terrorists, where inmates are susceptible to indoctrination and recruitment.

Aside from the overcrowded prisons, Tunisia’s economy has been failing.

While young Tunisians may cite ideological reasons to why they joined IS, some have bragged of the better economic and social environment living under IS as well. If Tunisia does not improve its economic and social issues that have plagued the country, young people may choose to fulfillment instead in jihadist ideology.

The growing support for IS among Tunisians threatens both neighboring countries and Tunisia itself. The continued unrest provides IS operatives in Libya the perfect cover to enter the country and carry out further attacks within Tunisia.

Tunisia has been stepping up it preparations for potential incursions from IS. Earlier in February, the government built a 125-mile-long trench along the Libya-Tunisia border in hopes of keeping out terrorists. The government has also sought help from Western governments, who have since sent help to train border forces. British troops arrived in Tunisia earlier in February to help defend from IS.

Aside from border control, the Tunisian government recently accepted a plan to allow for German troops to train Libyan government forces inside their borders. Tunisia realizes the potential harm IS will inflict if they are able to establish itself inside its borders, and are doing everything it can to stop the future inflow.

Tunisia has repeatedly been targeted by IS, including the Bardo Museum attack in Tunis last March that killed 23 and the targeting a hotel in Sousse last June killing 38. In addition to targeting the tourism industry IS has also targeted Tunisian security forces, with bus bombing targeting Tunisian presidential guards killing 12 last November.

Tunisia currently faces grave danger from IS. Today’s incursion illustrates that the border is not secure despite foreign military advisors and border security improvements.