The Possible Return of AQAP in Southern Yemen

On Thursday, June 23rd, Iranian-backed Shia Houthi rebels reportedly executed 7 village farmers in central Yemen’s Ibb province in an attempt to hunt down a pro-Hadi government militia leader. The alleged assassinations occurred amidst cease-fire discussions, in which both parties – those supporting the Hadi government and those backing the Houthi rebels – are currently engaged.

Villagers and witnesses in the town of Nadara stated that the Houthi rebels were in desperate search of a governmental militia leader. Upon finding his estate, the rebels destroyed his house with explosives and killed seven farmers working in his field.

Contradicting the Reuters’ report, the pro-Houthi media outlet, Saba, stated that local security forces attacked an al-Qaeda terrorist cell operating inside central Yemen. The agency cited the killings as a success toward their larger campaign of ousting al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its supposed allies.

AQAP has been known in the past to cooperate with local village militias and even at times with pro-Hadi forces.

Prior to Thursday’s killings, a Wall Street Journal article written on July 15th, 2015, outlined the former makeshift alliance between Hadi and AQAP forces. The article also identified how the Saudi-backed Hadi troops attempted to retake the city of Aden from the Houthi rebels alongside al-Qaeda.

Since the start of the Yemeni civil war in 2014, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the Yemeni-based branch of Al-Qaeda, has been increasing their operations to gain foothold in the region. Though they initially conquered large amounts of territory during the power vacuum, the group has since been pushed back. In recent months, a combination of Saudi-backed forces, Houthi rebel groups, and US-led airstrikes were able to remove AQAP from strategic areas, such as the southern port city of Aden.

While early reports had suggested Saudi Arabia had been willing to tolerate AQAP, as two were both aligned against the Houth Rebels, that de facto alliance appears to have come to an end in early 2016, and there are currently no reports of cooperation between the Saudi-backed Hadi forces and AQAP.

Coinciding with Thursday’s conflict in central Yemen, the Associated Press reported that civilians and other residents in Yemen’s southern providence of Jaar and Zinjibar have witnessed a return of al-Qaeda militants. The unidentified Yemenis explained how they had seen al-Qaeda operatives riding around in trucks with anti-aircraft guns attached in the back. The terrorists were seen moving through cities around the Anbar province during the day and thought to be taking shelter in nearby hideouts at night.

In early June and late May, both the Saudi-backed Hadi government and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels allegedly promised to quell aggression during the Kuwait peace talks. After numerous incursions on both sides of the struggle, hostilities only appeared to skyrocket under such conciliatory efforts, specifically when multiple ballistic missiles were fired into Saudi Arabia from Yemen.

Currently, Houthi rebels appear to have no interest in any peace deal after rejecting a UN envoy that sought to end the conflict. The rebels’ desire to install  an interim president, in addition to other unwavering demands, has only exacerbated the stall in the deal to end the conflict.

The possible return of AQAP in southern Yemen illustrates the looming threat of al-Qaeda, which seeks to reclaim lost territory in the wake of failed cease-fire talks. If reports of an AQAP return are true, it also identifies the weakening grip of Houthi forces in the area as they continue to deny cease-fire offers and fight Saudi-backed forces. The resurgence of AQAP in southern Yemen would present the United States and its allies with a grave threat if the group were able to retake large enough portions along the southern coast. Access to the Gulf of Aden, the Red Sea, and the Bab-al-Mandab straight would allow al-Qaeda to significantly increase its financial and recruiting capabilities. Ultimately, the degradation of the civil war in Yemen only presents opportunities for AQAP and other terrorist groups to capitalize on the political and civil turmoil of the region and increase their jihadist movement throughout the Middle East.