Is Nicaragua on the brink of civil war?

In the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (NAAR) of Nicaragua the indigenous Miskito people have a clear message to the mestizo settlers from the west of the country: either leave within seven months or there will be war. There have already been casualties. On January 5^th an armed group of Miskitos from the Layasiksa 2 reservation killed 2 settlers while trying to evict them from their land. Fortunately, on January 18^th these same Miskitos were able to evict 4 settlers without any casualties. On Layasiksa 1 and Isnawas reservations armed groups of Miskitos have also been evicting settlers.

There is growing fear that the conflict might get even bloodier. The settlers have also started to arm themselves to protect their holdings.

The problem stems from the refusal of the current Sandinista government to protect the land rights of the indigenous peoples. The Nicaraguan government has recognized its costal Caribbean regions as autonomous entities belonging to the descendants of the Miskito and other Native American tribes since 1905. The current Sandinista government of President Daniel Ortega has formally followed this precedent, but has been lax in enforcing it.

Due to the lack of government response the Miskitos have to take matters into their own hands and begun forcibly evicting colonists. After holding four of the settlers’ hostage the Miskitos have gotten a written agreement with the government saying that the Sandinistas will remove all settlers from Miskito lands within 7 months. If Ortega does not follow through then Miskitos are willing to shed their blood to remove the colonists.

However, this has not been the first time that the Miskitos have been in conflict with the Sandinistas. During the Nicaraguan Civil War in the 1980’s the Sandinista government of Daniel Ortega was in open war with the Miskitos. The Sandinistas were trying to strip the Miskitos of their autonomy and bring their land fully under Managua’s control. Once the Sandinistas were removed from power the Miskitos militias demobilized.

Now that Ortega is back in power the settlements are likely part of his plan to impose Sandinista control over the Caribbean region. In exchange for allowing Nicaraguans to set up farms on the reservations the Sandinistas expect these settlers to become a loyal voting bloc. There have also been attempts by the government to set up new tribal councils that are loyal to the Sandinistas. In the process Miskitos are losing lands that have belonged to their families for generations.

If the Sandinistas do not honor their agreement and remove the settlers from native lands then Nicaragua might descend into another civil war. The Miskitos have already shown they are willing to kill to defend their land so it is likely their confrontation with the settlers might escalate into pitched battles. From there the Sandinista controlled army would have to get involved.

If the Miskitos engage the Nicaraguan army it is reasonable to believe that other parts of the country may also rise up. Given the recent wave of protests and the low election turnout there is probably dissatisfaction with the Ortega regime, which could feed an insurrection.

In the recent presidential elections the abstention rate was about 70 percent, which shows that large segments of the population did not want to participate in what the independent press dubbed “an electoral farce.”

In the south of the country protests by farmers against a proposed Chinese interoceanic canal have been intensifying. The famers are afraid they would lose their land, which would be taken over by the Chinese to build the canal. Hundreds of farmers threatened with dispossession have already marched in the Rivas, Río San Juan y Caribe Sur with some traveling to Managua to protest.

Those areas border the Caribe Norte region where the Miskitos have been fighting with the settlers. So if the farmers in the south do lose their land to the Chinese they might join the Miskitos if the indigenous tribes pick up arms against the government.

Besides the social unrest, the country’s economic situation has also been getting worse. Nicaragua has been dependent on Venezuela aid that has been drastically cut due to Venezuela’s own economic woes. This poses serious problems for the Ortega regime since without Venezuelan backing it will be hard for him to fund government programs. If Ortega does not find a way to fill his country’s empty coffers then whatever popular support he has is likely to collapse.

With public discontent brewing in the south and the economy on the brink, any escalation of the conflict with the Miskitos could lead to a full insurgency. Something that Nicaraguans are sadly familiar with.