Alexei Navalny and the Threat to Putin

On Monday, tens of thousands took to the streets across Russia calling for an end to government corruption. Russian police have reportedly detained more than 1,000 participants, including the opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, who was prevented from reaching the demonstration when forces arrested him at his home in Moscow. Navalny was sentenced to 30 days in jail for organizing an unsanctioned protest.

The Moscow demonstration had originally been set for a preauthorized location away from the Kremlin. Navalny switched the location at last minute to Tverskaya Street, one of the main streets in Moscow. He claims that this change is because the government had prevented him from getting access to necessary setup equipment.

The protests coincide with Russia Day, a national holiday celebrating state sovereignty.  Celebrations commenced on Tverskaya Street though the nearby protests made this difficult.

Pro-Kremlin media outlets condemn the demonstrations saying that Navalny and the protestors ruined the holiday celebrations with their actions. Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin tabloid, claims that Navalny “desperately needed a scandal” and praised the police handling of the protest.

Russian media outlets controlled by the state have released conflicting information about Monday’s protests. For example, according to Izvestia, Russian authorities claim no more than 5,000 were involved in the rally in Moscow. However, Reuters puts the number in the tens of thousands.

Navalny began his opposition to the ruling regime of President Vladimir Putin in late 2007 following purchases of stock in Russian companies such as Gazprom and Transneft. Noticing gross malfeasance within these and other corporations, Navalny founded the Anti-Corruption Foundation in 2011 and heads projects such as RosPil that work to expose this misuse in Russia.

In a recent blog post hoping to incentivize Russians to join his cause, Navalny writes that he wants to see change in Russia: “I want to live in a modern democratic state and I want our taxes to be converted into roads, schools and hospitals, not into yachts, palaces and vineyards.”

Additionally, Navalny’s successful social media campaign has gained him a lot of supporters. An example is with his appeal to the Russian youth through his use of YouTube.

This form of campaigning proved to be particularly effective in March when he released a film about the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his misconduct. The video has reached over 22 million views and caused thousands to protest back in March. Navalny was also arrested here and jailed for 15 days.

This past December, Navalny announced his intentions to run for the 2018 presidential election. With Putin for an opponent, his chances of winning are slim. In recent years, Putin has consistently received high approval ratings often above 80%. Most Russians view Putin as the solver and not the creator of their problems.

Support for Navalny remains low at an estimated 6%. However, Navalny’s running has broad implications for the country. It signals to the Russian people and the international world that Putin’s hold on the country is faltering.

Currently Navalny faces a five-year suspended prison sentence on charges of embezzlement but he claims the accusations are politically motivated. The conviction bars Navalny from running for the 2018 election but his strong public profile places pressure on the Russian government to let him run in order to make the election appear more legitimate.

Regardless of whether Navalny is allowed to run, the protests he ignited allude to an increasingly discontented Russian society. The Russian government struggles to dismember the movement because the protestors’ fight against corruption has a broad appeal in the country with around 75% of Russians recognizing the issue.

Navalny and the message he embodies pose a significant threat to Putin’s regime.