Al-Shabaab Attacks Civilians in Pizza House

Over the past week, al-Shabaab carried out two successful terrorist attacks in Somalia. The first took place on June 8 when al-Shabaab fighters stormed a Puntland military base killing up to 61 people.

The most recent attack occurred on the evening of June 14 in Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, and according to the Associated Press, left 31 dead and 40 wounded. During the assault, a car bomb detonated and five gunmen proceeded to attack a popular Pizza House where they took hostages, many of whom they killed.

Details remain unclear whether al-Shabaab’s intended target for the bomb was the restaurant or a nearby hotel. The overnight siege lasted until Thursday morning, ending once security forces reportedly killed all five of the assailants.

Unlike the attack in Puntland, which targeted Somali forces, the assault in Mogadishu was directed toward civilians who were taking a break from Ramadan fasting.

The terrorism in Mogadishu may be a response by al-Shabaab to the recent June 11 U.S. airstrike against al-Shabaab which killed eight of the jihadist group’s insurgents. President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed praised the counter terrorist strike and deemed it a success.

Al-Shabaab is known for responding to military pressure in the past, such as its 2013 attack in Kenya at the Westgate Mall which left 67 people dead and more than 200 wounded. The group carried out the attack in response to Kenyan forces in Somalia working to push the group out.

Al-Shabaab is a jihadist group that seeks to overthrow the Somali government and impose Sharia law in the country. It is designated as a U.S. foreign terrorist organization and labeled as Africa’s deadliest terror group in 2016 with over 4,200 accounted deaths in that year.

Due to in part to recent successes, Al Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab remains the preeminent terror group in Somalia, and it’s strategic competitor, the Islamic State (IS) has failed to gain significant territory or influence in the area.

The al-Shabaab continues to target those working for stability in Somalia killing government officials and Somali military forces along with journalists, foreigners, and numerous civilians. Al-Shabaab has traditionally favored methods including suicide attacks, kidnappings, bombings, and shootings. In some prior assaults, the group has successfully conducted paired suicide attacks, with secondary explosions aimed at paramedics and bystanders arriving on the scene of the initial incident.

The implications for the recent uptick in attacks are twofold: it suggests that while al-Shabaab is not immune to the military’s counter terrorist efforts against it, the group’s strength is far from diminished.

To counter such opposition groups, the United Nations Security Council authorized the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in 2007. AMISOM’s objectives are to help reduce the threat of opposition groups, particularly al-Shabaab, provide security to the Somali government, and work towards transferring these duties to Somali forces.

While the group has been in Somalia for a decade, there are plans for the 22,000 AMISOM troops to begin their withdrawal in 2018, pulling out entirely by 2020.

With the recent election of President Mohamed, who vows to rid Somalia of al-Shabaab within two years, the Somali government faces pressure to wean itself off of its reliance on AMISOM. President Mohamed’s statement is certainly admirable but also unrealistic.

Al-Shabaab continues to pose as threat to the country and with AMISOM’s eventual pullout, Somali forces are left vulnerable. The troops are ill-equipped, in part due to a lack of artillery support. The country remains under United Nation’s weapon embargo.

The U.S. recently sent dozens of troops to Somalia with the aim to “train and equip” Somali forces so that they can withstand against al-Shabaab. Additionally, in March, the Trump administration expanded operations in Somalia which allow for more counterterrorism airstrikes.

While AMISOM’s deployment in Somalia has been extended in the past, Somalia cannot rely on the group’s possible extension to save the country from terrorism. It must be able to function independently on its own. To do so, counterterrorism efforts by countries like the U.S. should continue and AMISOM should ensure that by 2018, Somali forces are readily trained and prepared to continue the fight against the opposition.