Regarding the “disappearing officials” and the defense minister in particular, one hopes the CIA and the rest of the Intelligence Community with their $80 billion USD budget know the answer and aren’t just speculating like the rest of us.
But here’s how I see it.
There probably isn’t a single Chinese official at these levels who isn’t guilty of corruption. And even if there are a few “clean” ones, as Lavrentiy Beria (the Soviet secret police chief) said: “Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.”
So it is unlikely that he got caught because of “corruption” and Xi is just cleaning out a corrupt official or three. “Corruption” seems to be the modern version of the Maoist era’s “counter-revolutionary activities.” It’s the go-to, catch-all charge for getting rid of people and making it look like they were guilty of something.
So why is Xi doing it?
Possible Motives
It could be the officials’ poor performance ー and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has flubbed some exercises. And it’s exhibited some serious failings. Or maybe they just weren’t taking things seriously enough and Xi didn’t think he’s got their attention or can count on them.
Maybe. But the PLA has had problems for years and the Chinese talk about it all the time. Note frequent complaints about the PLA’s “peace disease” and other military shortcomings.
I suspect Xi is worried about something internally. He might see opposition forming in certain quarters. He’s no doubt got plenty of enemies after purging his rivals over the years. This is the nature of dictatorships and regimes that rule by force and intimidation. All opposition is rooted out — even preemptively, and even where it does not exist.
Instill enough fear and it’s less likely anyone will take down the “boss.” Or so the theory goes.
Or perhaps Xi wants to get “his team” of totally pliant toadies and incompetents in place. Men who pose no threat to him and will follow orders — when he makes a move somewhere? Say, against Taiwan, India, Mongolia, or Japan?
Tightening Up Control of the Economy and Business
Xi has clearly been trying to get control of the economy as well. Particularly the more “productive” parts that aren’t under tight enough state control. It seems like Xi is purposely tanking the economy and in fact, doesn’t mind making the middle class and the more prosperous coastal provinces “toughen up.”
Maybe this is Xi’s version of “draining the swamp.”
Harassing foreign firms in China seems like an act of self-harm. But think about it in terms of consolidating power and control and there’s a logic. However, it’s only doable if Xi thinks he can get away with it.
And that suggests contempt for foreign businessmen who Xi must reckon will put up with any amount of abuse — if they think they can make money in China.
But to do that, Xi’s got to have confidence that China can withstand any pressure or backlash that comes from this clampdown.
Xi also seems to have been “sanction-proofing” China for a while now. It’s not “sanction-proofed” just yet, but if he’s willing to have his own citizens “eat bitterness” it may not matter so much.
What’s Xi’s End-Game and Why Is This Happening Now?
End game?
Regional domination and control. Teach the Japanese a lesson. Drive the Americans out of Asia. And ultimately — have global dominance.
Why go on the offensive now?
Read more.
