The prevailing logic regarding the Iranian nuclear weapons program is this. The Iranians are on the verge of having sufficient highly enriched uranium (HEU) to make several nuclear weapons. After they acquire this material they will then have to engineer the nuclear weapons into which this HEU will be placed. At some point in this process, the Israelis will stage a preemptive strike and eliminate the threat. It will all be fine.
Why? Why do we assume that the Iranians will act this way? They know as well as we do that the Israelis are prepared to strike first. Is it likely then that they will proceed in a fashion that will allow the Israelis, or for that matter, the United States to eliminate an Iranian nuclear weapons threat? Isn’t it much more likely that the boys in charge in Tehran have thought this through and made their own plans?
The Iranians have been working on nuclear weapons for decades.
Throughout that time period, there has been extensive reporting on their efforts to solve the engineering problems associated with nuclear weapons. This includes work on solving the complex issues related to getting an implosion device to function properly and not just blow itself apart and fail.
The Iranians have extensive contacts with both the Chinese and the North Koreans. These are both nuclear powers. Isn’t it entirely possible that Iranian nuclear weapons will be copies of existing proven designs from one of these nations? Building a weapon from a template significantly simplifies the process as we saw with the Soviets. They stole everything that wasn’t nailed down from the Manhattan Project and closed the nuclear weapons gap with us in a matter of a few years. Their first bomb was effectively a carbon copy of one we had built.
The Iranians have a massive arsenal of ballistic missiles. Do we think they built all these without giving any thought to which one they would use to carry a nuclear warhead? Isn’t it much more likely that the bombs they will build will match precisely with the known dimensions of the capsule on an existing missile?
In short, shouldn’t we at least consider the possibility that as soon as the Iranians have the HEU they need they will be able to assemble and launch a nuke within a very, very short period of time?
All of that ought to be concerning enough, but let’s consider another entirely different dimension of this puzzle. When the Iranians have nuclear weapons ready for use, why do we assume they will place them in known locations where they can be taken out? The Iranians and their surrogates operate extensive clandestine networks worldwide. Via these networks, they move personnel, explosives, munitions, and drugs on a huge scale. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has extensive facilities in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and South America.
If you can move missiles and tons of munitions around the world without detection or interdiction you can move nuclear weapons.
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