Japan passes record defense budget, while still playing catch-up

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — While Japan’s Cabinet has approved a record defense budget for 2025, the 13th growth year in a row, Tokyo’s military posture vis-à-vis regional threats remains a work on progress, according a U.S. analyst.

Grant Newsham, senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, told Defense News that “decades of pathological dependence” on the United States have left Japan’s military “a stunted force not really able to operate efficiently or effectively in most cases.”

This is at a time when Japan perceives unprecedented external threats. The government’s 2024 iteration of its annual Defense of Japan white paper noted, “Japan is facing the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II.”

Japan is alarmed by China intruding into its southwestern archipelago, and it regards Russia and North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs as serious risks.

Newsham noted, “I think Japan recognizes and understands the seriousness of the threats it faces from China, North Korea and Russia. Ukraine really spurred Japanese awareness – figuring that Taiwan was next, with everything that would portend for Japan’s security.”

Yet the former U.S. Marine Corps officer warned the threat perception has yet to manifest itself fully in defense programs. “This hasn’t, however, translated into a Japan Self-Defense Force that’s organized and capable of fighting a war – despite having some niche capabilities that would be very helpful if employed in support of U.S. forces,” he said.

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