A badly timed trip to China throws Taiwan into a firestorm

Editor’s Note: This piece by Shannon Vavra features quotes from CSP Senior Fellow Grant Newsham.

Andrew Hsia, the Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Vice Chairman from Taiwan, just wrapped up a controversial visit to China that has raised alarm bells within Taiwan’s ruling party about loyalties as tensions mount over China’s potential plots to invade Taiwan.

Chinese officials took advantage of the meetings to pressure Hsia to take a stand for the “One China” policy from the 1992 consensus, which acknowledges the existence of one sovereign Chinese state—a stance that fundamentally differs from the current approach of the ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

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Given KMT’s previous stance on the 1992 consensus, Chinese officials are likely taking advantage of Hsia’s visit to curry favor in Taiwan, said Grant Newsham, a former diplomat and retired U.S. Marine Colonel who has studied Taiwan’s defenses.

“The Chinese Communists are of course capitalizing on Hsia’s visit,” with a likely eye towards influencing the upcoming elections, said Newsham.

If a more China-friendly party like the KMT were to win in 2024, China could consider itself to be one step closer to achieving its aims in Taiwan, Newsham warned. It could be “a step toward eventual victory, from the Chinese perspective,” he said. “Chinese political warfare and influence operations… are going full bore.”

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