A Different Approach to Nonproliferation (2005)

Yet still the CD, led by the New Agenda Coalition (Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa, and Sweden), and supported by the overwhelming majority of nations, concentrates on an all-out effort to force the U.S. to make ill-advised, long-term commitments to their nuclear disarmament agenda.

As a subset of its focus on nuclear disarmament, the CD has, over the years, also exerted maximum efforts to achieve a global nuclear test ban.  This has been done by linking testing with proliferation.  It is argued that nonproliferation is vital, and testing is incompatible with nonproliferation.  The first part of this proposition is absolutely correct; the second is absolutely incorrect…as regards nuclear-weapon states!  The NPT places no limitations whatever on nuclear testing by NWS.  And there is no connection or linkage whatsoever between testing by the five NWS and acquisition of nuclear weapons by another state.  No one has ever been able to point to a single instance in which this has occurred over the half-century history of the nuclear weapons era  (both during the decades of testing, and during the last decade when test moratoria were in effect).  This awkward fact has not prevented the CD, and a majority of nations, from continuing to demand that testing by all be stopped forever.  States have even been willing to claim that they would consider acquiring nuclear weapons if the U.S., et al., did not stop testing.  In summary, the only argument against resumption of testing by NWS is a linkage to proliferation…which does not exist!  All that’s required is the political will to withdraw from the test moratorium.

The U.S. has not done nearly enough in the past to attack the well-meaning but completely mistaken article of faith that testing and nonproliferation are an either-or proposition, but it must be done now.  The Cold War was at its height when the NPT was signed in 1970, and these hostilities continued for two decades.  In that era it may have been understandable for the CD to emphasize nuclear disarmament.  But in today’s post-Cold-War world–the era of international terrorism and its nuclear threats–the world can no longer afford the luxury of a misguided UN focusing on the NWS and doing very little to prevent or discipline actual proliferation by belligerent states.

Terrorism is a global threat, and it can be met successfully only by a global response.  Since 2001 the U.S. has taken the lead in this, with little or no UN assistance, through coalitions of the willing, leadership in establishing the need for preemption, creation of the Proliferation Security Initiative (now supported by 60 nations), initiation of the Global Partnership of the G-8  (now expanded to 21 countries), focusing on enrichment and reprocessing as critical elements of the fuel cycle (leading to the Additional Protocol approach), establishing counterproliferation policies which are gaining multilateral support, and many more proliferation prevention actions..

But the U.S. must do more to refocus the CD and the nations on the world on preventing proliferation.  The U.S. should attempt to guide the CD into a complete new pattern of activity, characterized by:  (1) recognition that nonproliferation cannot succeed in the absence of a “policing” function by the five NWS (a trust they have well-earned during the past half-century); (2) recognition that, to perform this function, the NWS must continue to maintain modern, effective nuclear arsenals; (3) recognition that this will require nuclear testing by some or all of these five states (exactly as contemplated by the founders and language of the NPT!); (4) recognition that Article VI is a visionary long-term goal, but one that is not suited to immediate implementation in the world today; (5) recognition that the CD’s past total emphasis on nuclear disarmament should be deferred; and (6) recognition that the CD should concentrate its efforts on effective means to prevent–forcibly if necessary–acquisition of nuclear weapons by any states or organizations other than the five NWS.

In sum, the U.S. and the world face an urgent, serious “proliferation prevention” challenge!